The latest legal challenge to Donald Trump's campaign for a second term as US president seems likely to hand the 2024 Republican frontrunner even more firepower in his quest to win his party's nomination.
The Colorado Supreme Court ruled on Tuesday that the former president was barred from its state ballot for engaging in "insurrection" due to a rarely used constitutional provision, an unprecedented decision that the conservative-led US Supreme Court could overturn.
Donors and political analysts from both major parties said the ruling would inflame Mr Trump's political base, fuel his argument that he is the victim of a partisan legal process, and fill his campaign coffers, as happened earlier this year when he was indicted on a bevy of felony charges for attempting to overturn the 2020 election among other alleged crimes. Those charges did not include insurrection.
"Trump is celebrating," said John Morgan, a Florida attorney and key fundraiser for president Joe Biden, a Democrat. He forecast a "fundraising bonanza" for the Republican.
Mr Trump vowed to appeal to US Supreme Court the Colorado ruling that the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution bars him from seeking office. The top court's 6-3 conservative majority includes three Trump appointees.
Polls
His campaign urged supporters to donate to fight back against what it called a "tyrannical" decision.
Mr Trump, 77, has a slight lead over Mr Biden nationally in a head-to-head match-up ahead of the November 5th, 2024, election, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The Colorado ruling could help Democrats appeal to crucial independent voters who believe Mr Trump engaged in insurrection.
In a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted December 5th-11th, 57 per cent of independent voters said it was believable that Mr Trump "tried to incite a mob to attack the US Capitol on Jan 6, 2021." Only 30 per cent said it was unbelievable.
By contrast, some 70 per cent of Republican respondents considered that allegation "not believable," while 23 per cent of Republicans said it was believable and the rest were not sure.
Asked on Wednesday if Mr Trump is an insurrectionist, Mr Biden said it was "self evident. You saw it all."
"Whether the 14th Amendment applies or not, we'll let the court make that decision," Mr Biden said. "But he certainly supported an insurrection. There's no question about it. None. Zero. And he seems to be doubling down on it."
Primary boost
Mr Trump remains the overwhelming favourite for the Republican nomination and being barred in Colorado would not change that. The state, which has been trending Democratic, is not seen as competitive in next year's general election.
The decision came less than a month before the first Republican nominating contest kicks off in Iowa on January 15th, thrusting the spotlight back on Mr Trump at a time when former UN ambassador Nikki Haley has been gaining some momentum.
Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist based in Florida, said the ruling would reinforce Mr Trump’s longstanding narrative that he is the victim of a politically motivated legal process, and it could push undecided Republican voters to his corner.
“If the indictments propelled Trump to a significant lead in the primary, this is going to end any debate among the grassroots about who the 2024 Republican nominee will be,” Mr O’Connell said.
As happened with Mr Trump’s previous court cases, Republican rivals for the nomination leapt to his defence rather than seek to benefit from the Colorado decision.
“The Left invokes ‘democracy’ to justify its use of power, even if it means abusing judicial power to remove a candidate from the ballot based on spurious legal grounds,” Florida governor Ron DeSantis wrote on X.
Ms Haley called the judges' action "truly unthinkable".
"I am going to defeat Donald Trump on my own," she told Fox News. "I don't need a judge to go take him off the ballot."
In the 4-3 ruling, the Colorado court's majority said they apply the law "without fear or favour, and without being swayed by public reaction to the decisions that the law mandates we reach".
Biden attacks on Trump
Mr Biden has been going after Mr Trump more aggressively in recent months and has said he might not be running at all if he were not facing Mr Trump, who he believes poses a unique threat to the US.
Some of Mr Biden's aggressiveness comes after his touting of the economy has fallen flat with voters, leading donors to push him to frame his 2024 campaign more directly as a battle against Mr Trump.
In the unlikely event a number of states strike Mr Trump from the ballot, making it impossible for him to win the nomination, Mr Biden would not necessarily benefit.
Some polls have shown both Mr DeSantis and Ms Haley would run a competitive race against the 81-year-old incumbent.
Hassan Martini, executive director of No Democrat Left Behind, an advocacy group that seeks to win over rural voters, said Mr Trump would try to use the ruling to his advantage and Mr Biden must stay focused on strengths including economic progress, bipartisan outreach and steady leadership.
"Getting caught in the trap of endless Trump controversies would only benefit his opponents," Mr Martini said.
