Fianna Fáil has emerged as the clear winner of the election, making a return of the coalition with Fine Gael highly likely.
Micheál Martin's party secured 48 seats in the Dáil, while Fine Gael under the leadership of Simon Harris has 38 seats.
However, their combined seat total of 86 leaves them just short of the 88 needed for a majority in the expanded Dáil of 174 TDs.
So what are the options available to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael? And could a coalition be formed without them?
As the two parties only need a couple of votes to reach a majority, Mr Martin and Mr Harris may first look to a group of Independent TDs to support the government through key votes.
There will be 16 Independent TDs in the next Dáil, and about 10 of them have voted with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael previously.
The last Dáil had an eight-strong Regional Independent Group and some of its members often voted with the government in crunch votes.
Longford-Westmeath Independent TD Kevin “Boxer” Moran, who served in a Fine Gael-led minority government between 2017 and 2020, expressed his willingness to listen to offers to join a new coalition.
“Look, my door’s open,” he told RTÉ on Monday. “Someone knocks, I’m always there to open it.”
Marian Harkin, an Independent TD for Sligo-Leitrim, expressed her desire to participate in government as she noted that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were within “shouting distance” of an overall majority.
“That means they will be looking for support, and I certainly will be one of those people who will be speaking to them and talking to them and negotiating with them, and I’m looking forward to doing that, because that was the reason that I ran in the first place,” she said.
The new Independent Ireland party has four TDs in the new Dáil and could also be brought into a similar arrangement to support the government.
Coalition with left parties
Another option available to Mr Martin and Mr Harris is to enter a formal coalition with one of the smaller left-leaning parties.
A Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition with either Labour or the Social Democrats would give the government a secure majority of nine seats.
However, both of the smaller parties now appear more cautious about the prospect of an alliance with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
They will no doubt be mindful of the experience of the Green Party, the junior partner in the last mandate. The Greens experienced near wipeout in the election, retaining only one of their 12 seats.
Labour leader Ivana Bacik reiterated her party’s determination to forge an alliance with fellow centre-left parties with the intention of having a unified approach to the prospect of entering government.
Asked on Monday if Labour was prepared to go into government with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael on its own, she told RTÉ: “No, not at this stage. We are absolutely not willing to do that.
“We want to ensure there’s the largest number of TDs who share our vision and our values who want to deliver change on the same basis that we do.”
The Social Democrats have been non-committal about any potential arrangement with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and have restated a series of red lines they would need to achieve before considering taking a place in government.
Leader Holly Cairns, who gave birth to a daughter on polling day on Friday, said in a statement: “The party is in a very strong position to play an important role in the next Dail. In what position, government or opposition, remains to be seen.”
Left-led coalition?
Sinn Féin appears to currently have no realistic route to government, given Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s ongoing refusal to share power with the party.
Despite the odds being stacked against them, Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald contacted the leaders of the Social Democrats and Labour on Monday to discuss options.
However, a coalition of Sinn Féin along with Labour and the Social Democrats would be 17 votes short of a majority.
Sinn Féin's Eoin Ó Broin said they will continue to speak to like-minded parties in a bid to form a left-leaning government, and there is a “powerful bloc” of 60 progressive politicians who campaigned for change.
“The numbers are very clear and Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael do have the numbers to form a government, albeit with some external support,” he told RTÉ's Morning Ireland on Tuesday.
“However, a deal hasn’t been reached. A week is a long time in politics, and many things can change.
“So given the fact that our view is that a Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael coalition is the worst possible option, despite the fact that Micheál Martin seems intent on bringing Fine Gael in as a junior partner, we said we were going to talk to other like-minded, progressive political parties on the other side of the election.
“That’s exactly what we’re going to do, and in the first instance it’s to assess what are the options, what are the possibilities? Micheál Martin clearly has the upper hand. There’s no denying that.”
Mr Ó Broin did not rule out speaking to Fianna Fáil if the numbers to form a left-leaning government did not stack up.
“We always said during the election campaign that while our first preference was a government without Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, if those numbers weren’t available, we would talk to everybody, and that includes Fianna Fáil,” he added.
