A repeat of the last government coalition cannot be ruled out, while Sinn Féin would struggle to bring a left-wing coalition together, according to a political commentator.
Speaking to BreakingNews.ie, DCU Professor of Politics Gary Murphy said a repeat of the Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil/Green Party coalition is possible despite obvious tensions.
Since Roderic O'Gorman replaced Eamon Ryan as Green Party leader, tensions between the smaller party and their coalition parties have been obvious.
Some felt Mr O'Gorman suggesting a November 29th general election date, which was ultimately realised, was a way to get a dig in at Taoiseach Simon Harris and Tánaiste Micheál Martin.
Mr O'Gorman has also accused Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael of "marginalising" his party to keep it out of the next government.
However, Prof Murphy said these tensions would quickly be forgotten if the numbers allow for a repeat of the coalition.
Because of the extra seats, we now have 174 seats in the Dáil. You will need 88 or so for a majority. That's hard to get to
"Because of the extra seats, we now have 174 seats in the Dáil. You will need 88 or so for a majority. That's hard to get to. After the last election, Fine Gael had 35, Fianna Fáil had 38, so that would be 73, still a long way away. You need a third leg, even if they gain a couple of seats.
"One option is the Greens because it worked reasonably well. The Greens didn't get the heebie-jeebies when the Government hit difficult spells. They stuck the course, so they could probably do it again.
"It was also going to be interesting to see how the government would end. With Roderic O'Gorman taking over as Green Party leader and trying to force himself to national attention, he doesn't have the high profile Eamon Ryan had, for instance, but I was never convinced the Government would collapse. I see the clashes as more performative politics than anything else. I'd be more convinced by the fact that for four and a half years the Government stayed together. That was the point Roderic O'Gorman made when he was asked on Morning Ireland.
"Would Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael think the Greens are a pain with their carbon taxes and insistence on trying to meet climate targets? Most political parties want to meet those targets, but Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael tend to be more pragmatic and say 'it's not going to be the end of the world', although it could be."
Prof Murphy said Mr Harris and Mr Martin would be more likely to look to a third party than the more uncertain prospect of a coalition involving Independent TDs. He said Labour may be another option for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
Third party or Independents?
"The main point I think is it's more likely they will look to a party than Independents. Who knows what tensions are like in Cabinet, but the Government lasted near full-term and seemed to get a lot done. The Greens would be an option if they come back with enough seats to make a government work.
"They have both flashed their eyelids at Labour a little bit, and Labour seem bullish about their own chances, so that's certainly a possibility. If you were Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael I think you would be tempted to go to a party rather than to Independents.
"I suspect if there's an obvious route to 90 seats to give you a comfortable majority between three parties, for Fianna Fail or Fine Gael that is likely to be more satisfactory to them than cobbling together Independents. Independent Ireland is new, they have no whip system, so it would be unpredictable, and that would be in the thoughts of Harris and Martin."
Prof Murphy feels Sinn Féin may have a stronger election performance than many pundits have predicted.
However, he said their prospects of a left-wing government are slim due to the difficulty of several parties, with varying policy views, coming together.
He said their most realistic proposition of being in power would have been as part of a Fianna Fáil coalition, which now looks impossible.
A Sinn Féin-led government?
"It's more a maths problem than anything else, Sinn Fein have 33 seats [down from 37]. Let's say they have a great day and win 46 seats. That still means they're 40 seats away from forming a government.
"You're looking at Labour, the Social Democrats, Aontú, Independents, it's very difficult to see the far-left going in with Sinn Féin. I don't think anyone would be pure enough for the likes of Richard Boyd Barrett and Paul Murphy and their sort of revolutionary approach to politics. Mary Lou McDonald is a pragmatist at heart I expect. Even if they got 44 or 46 seats, which would be a tremendous achievement now, they'd still be looking at 40 more to form a government, where do they get them?
"Imagine trying to form a Cabinet with Sinn Féin, the Social Democrats, Labour, Aontú, these parties have significantly different policies on things like climate, farming, etc.
"Satisfaction with the government is at something like 40 per cent, but not a lot. The cost-of-living is certainly a big issue, and Sinn Féin seem to have gained a little from that, their poll numbers are still worse than they were in 2020 when they got 24.5 per cent, they're now at 18-19 per cent according to polls, I think we could probably expect them into the low 20s next week.
"I just think the path to power, if the three larger parties are in and around the same seats with a few extra here or there for one of them, it's very difficult to see how one could form a government without one of the other, that's a big problem for Sinn Fein.
"I think before the Dublin riots, where Sinn Féin's problems really began, they were looking at around 50 seats, and if Fianna Fáil could get 35 they would target that. I'm still not convinced Micheál Maritn would ever go into government with Sinn Fein, but their thinking was a Sinn Féin/Fianna Fáil government. That is all but ruled out, in that context it's really difficult for Mary Lou to get to the Taoiseach's office."
Some people were struck by the ferocity of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael's attacks on each other at the outset of the general election campaign.
Prof Murphy said this is likely to tone down in the closing stages before polling, pointing to Mr Harris and Mr Martin's debate performance, as they sought to contrast the government from Sinn Féin.
Leaders' debate
"The television debate was just so boring. As Richard Boyd Barrett said, fair play to anyone who stuck out the whole thing. It didn't galvanise the electorate.
"In one way I think they're quite entitled to campaign as separate entities [Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael], they are separate parties. In a world where we expect them to form the next government... maybe with the Greens, Labour, Social Democrats or Independents, they'll still be going in trying to get the best deal possible for themselves.
"It is a little bit more robust or unedifying than I thought it would be, Tánaiste Micheál Martin even said this, that he was a bit taken aback by some of the Fine Gael attacks on his party.
"They did give as good as they got when you had Willie O'Dea saying Helen McEntee was the worst Minister for Justice in the history of the State, that's personalising things.
"It was more interesting perhaps to see in the debate on Monday, both Harris and Martin went after Sinn Féin, not quite as a tag team but not far removed from it either.
"I was struck by that, it seemed to be 'we're the government parties, let's keep Sinn Féin out' so to speak.
"I was slightly surprised at the vehemence with which the parties attacked each other, I don't think the public were overly impressed on the grounds of them spending four and a half years together, they also spent another four before that, 2016 to 2020. with Fianna Fáil in confidence and supply.
"I do think it has hardened into elect the two parts of the government, or vote Sinn Féin. I think that's what we're seeing now. I think the first week or so of a phoney war [between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael] has now dissipated a bit.
"I do think this idea of the government parties or us is helping them [Sinn Féin]. Mary Lou McDonald said it on Virgin Media the other night, they're running 71 candidates, 'vote for us to get the government out'."
