Micheál Martin has insisted it is time to “get on with the work” after hailing his Fianna Fáil party’s performance in the general election.
Fianna Fáil is on course to secure the most seats in the Dáil , with party leader Mr Martin poised for another stint in the role of taoiseach.
As the arduous count process enters its third day on Monday, with more than three quarters of the Dáil parliament’s 174 seats filled, the return of an administration involving Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael now looks a much more likely prospect than any government including the long-time main opposition party, Sinn Féin.
The two centrist parties that have dominated Irish politics for a century, and who shared power in the last coalition, both ruled out governing with Sinn Féin before Friday’s election, so it seems unlikely that either would countenance that option if they could form a workable coalition together.
If it is to be a reprise of the Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael governing partnership of the last mandate, one of the major unanswered questions is around the position of Taoiseach, and whether the parties will once again take turns to hold the Irish premiership during the lifetime of the new government.
The outcome in 2020 saw the parties enter a coalition on the basis that the holder of the premier position would be exchanged midway through the term.
Mr Martin took the role for the first half of the mandate, with Leo Varadkar taking over in December 2022. Current Fine Gael leader Simon Harris succeeded Mr Varadkar as Taoiseach when he resigned from the role earlier this year.
However, this time Fianna Fáil appears well placed to increase its seat lead over Fine Gael, compared with the last election when the parties were much closer.
The size of the disparity in party numbers is likely to draw focus on the rotating taoiseach arrangement, raising questions as to whether it will be re-run in the next coalition and, if it is, on what terms.
On Sunday, Simon Coveney, a former deputy leader of Fine Gael, said a coalition that did not repeat the rotating Taoiseach arrangement in some fashion would be a “difficult proposition” for his party.
Meanwhile, Fine Gael minister Paschal Donohoe said he would be making the case for Mr Harris to have another opportunity to serve as Taoiseach.
Mr Martin would not be drawn on the issue of coalition make-up on Sunday evening, insisting there was “very little point” in discussing government formation until seats are finalised.
“I think the sensible thing is to await the completion of all counts,” he said.
The current deputy premier added: “We’ll let the dust settle and savour the moment. We’ll then be in a position over the next couple of days to assess the landscape, devise our strategies.”
Later, in a speech after counting in his Cork constituency had finished, Tanaiste Mr Martin said: “The people have spoken, let us now get on with the work.”
One of the other main stories of the election is the near wipeout of the Green Party, which was the junior partner in the outgoing coalition.
The party has lost 11 of the 12 seats it won in 2020, including that held by Media minister Catherine Martin, with leader and Children’s minister Roderic O’Gorman clinging on to remain its sole representative in the Dail.
Fianna Fáil secured the most first preference votes in the proportional representation contest, taking 21.9 per cent to Fine Gael’s 20.8 per cent. Sinn Féin came in third on 19 per cent.
While Sinn Féin’s vote share represented a marked improvement on its disappointing showing in June’s local elections in Ireland, it is still significantly down on the 24.5 per cent poll-topping share it secured in the 2020 general election.
The final breakdown of first preferences also flips the result of Friday night’s exit poll, which suggested Sinn Féin was in front on 21.1%, with Fine Gael on 21% and Fianna Fáil on 19.5 per cent.
While giving a good gauge of the parties’ expected returns, first preference shares do not necessarily correlate to seats won, with those depending on the complex and often unpredictable way vote transfers are allocated.
If Fianna Féil and Fine Gael return to power, they could need one of the Dáil’s smaller parties to reach the required 88 seats to form a majority.
Another option may see the two parties seek the support of independent TDs.
The Social Democrats and the Labour Party, which both had a good election, appear the most realistic junior partners this time round.
