The leader of Sinn Féin has expressed determination to form a government of the left in Ireland as she insisted her party’s performance in the General Election had broken the state’s political mould.
Despite Mary Lou McDonald’s confidence around shaping a coalition without Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil – the two parties that have dominated the landscape of Irish politics for a century – the pathway to government for Sinn Féin still appears challenging.
With counting following Friday’s election still in the relatively early stages – after an exit poll that showed the main three parties effectively neck-and-neck – there is some way to go before the final picture emerges and the options for government formation crystalise.
Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader, Simon Harris, has dismissed talk of a Sinn Féin surge and said he was “cautiously optimistic” about where his party will stand after all the votes are counted.
Meanwhile, Tánaiste and Fianna Fáil leader, Micheál Martin, insisted his party has a “very clear route back to government” as he predicted seat gains.
The counting process could last days because of Ireland’s complex system of proportional representation with a single transferable vote (PR-STV), where candidates are ranked by preference.
The early indications have turned the focus to the tricky arithmetic of government formation, as the country’s several smaller parties and many independents potentially jockey for a place in government.
Ms McDonald told reporters at the RDS count centre in Dublin that she would be “very, very actively pursuing” the potential to form a government with other parties on the left of the political spectrum.
The smaller, left-leaning parties in Ireland include the Social Democrats, the Labour Party, the Green Party and People Before Profit-Solidarity.
Ms McDonald said her party had delivered an “incredible performance” in the election.
“I think it’s fair to say that we have now confirmed that we have broken the political mould here in this state,” she said.
“Two party politics is now gone. It’s consigned to the dustbin of history and that, in itself, is very significant.”
She added: “I am looking to bring about a government of change, and I’m going to go and look at all formulations.
“If you want my bottom line, the idea of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael for another five years, in our strong opinion, is not a good outcome for Irish society.
“Obviously, I want to talk to other parties of the left and those that we share very significant policy objectives with. So I’m going to do that first and just hear their mind, hear their thinking. But be very clear, we will be very, very actively pursuing entrance into government.”
In Friday night’s exit poll, Sinn Féin was predicted to take 21.1 per cent of first-preference votes, narrowly ahead of outgoing coalition partners Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil at 21 per cent and 19.5 per cent respectively.
Prior to the election, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael both ruled out entering government with Sinn Féin.
Fine Gael leader Mr Harris rejected suggestions Sinn Féin had broken new ground.
He told reporters in his count centre in Greystones, Co Wicklow: “Certainly we haven’t seen a Sinn Féin surge or anything like it.
“I mean, it looks likely, on the figures that we’ve seen now, fewer people, many fewer people would have voted Sinn Féin in this election than the last one.
“In fact, I think they’re down by around 5 per cent and actually the parties, particularly the two parties, the two larger parties in government, are likely to receive significant support from the electorate. So definitely, politics in Ireland has gotten much more fragmented.”
He said it was too early to tell what the next government would look like.
“I think anybody who makes any suggestion about who is going to be the largest party or the construct of the next government, they’re a braver person than I am,” he said.
“Our electoral system dictates that there’ll be many, many transfers that will go on for hours, if not days, before we know the final computations at all.
“But what I am very confident about is that my party will have a very significant role to play in the years ahead, and I’m cautiously optimistic and excited.”
Fianna Fáil’s Mr Martin told reporters at a count centre in Cork he was confident that the numbers exist to form a government with parties that shared his political viewpoint.
Mr Martin said it “remains to be seen” whether he would return to the role of Taoiseach – a position he held between 2020 and 2022 – but he expressed confidence his party would outperform the exit poll prediction.
“It’s a bit too early yet to call the exact type of government that will be formed or the composition of the next government,” he said.
“But I think there are, there will be a sufficiency of seats, it seems to me, that aligns with the core principles that I articulated at the outset of this campaign and throughout the campaign, around the pro-enterprise economy, around a positively pro-European position, a government that will strongly push for home ownership and around parties that are transparently democratic in how they conduct their affairs.”
Asked if it would be in a coalition with Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Social Democrats, he said that would be “racing a bit too far ahead”.
The final result may dictate that if Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are to return to government, they may need more than one junior partner, or potentially the buy-in of several independent TDs.
Mr Martin said it was unclear how quickly a government can be formed, as he predicted his party would gain new seats.
“It will be challenging. This is not easy,” he added.
The junior partner in the outgoing government – the Green Party – looks set for a bruising set of results.
Green leader Roderic O’Gorman is in a fight to hold onto his seat, as are a number of party colleagues, including Media Minister Catherine Martin.
“It’s clear the Green Party has not had a good day,” he said.
The early counting also suggested potential trouble for Fianna Fáil in Wicklow, where the party’s only candidate in the constituency, Health Minister Stephen Donnelly, is considered to have a battle ahead, with the risk of losing his seat.
Meanwhile, there is significant focus on independent candidate Gerard Hutch who, on Saturday evening, was sitting in fourth place in the four-seat constituency of Dublin Central.
Last spring, Mr Hutch was found not guilty by the non-jury Special Criminal Court of the murder of David Byrne, in one of the first deadly attacks of the Hutch-Kinahan gangland feud.
Mr Byrne, 33, died after being shot six times at a crowded boxing weigh-in event at the Regency Hotel in February 2016.
A Special Criminal Court judge described Mr Hutch, 61, as the patriarchal figurehead of the Hutch criminal organisation and said he had engaged in “serious criminal conduct”.
The constituency will be closely watched as other hopefuls wait to see if transfers from eliminated candidates may eventually rule him out of contention.
In the constituency of Louth, the much-criticised selection of John McGahon appeared not to have paid off for Fine Gael.
The party’s campaign was beset by questioning over footage entering the public domain of the candidate engaged in a fight outside a pub in 2018.
The Social Democrats have a strong chance of emerging as the largest of the smaller parties.
The party’s leader, Holly Cairns, was already celebrating before a single vote was counted however, having announced the birth of her baby girl on polling day.
