The situation regarding Covid-19 in Ireland is improving but 'finely balanced', according to the deputy chief medical officer.
In the latest letter sent to the Minister for Health from the National Public Health Emergency Team, (Nphet), Dr Ronan Glynn said while we are seeing continued progress against all indicators of disease, incidence remains high.
He added “Health and social care services continue to experience significant pressure from the current wave of infection. The number of confirmed cases in hospital and ICU is still high but continues to reduce.
“The number of cases in long-term residential care settings has decreased rapidly over recent weeks, more so than would be expected given the level of disease in the wider community.”
He said deaths associated with outbreaks in these setting also appear to be decreasing, with these trends supporting the emerging evidence of the protective effect of vaccination.
Data related to length of stay in hospital/critical care and admission probability by age were reviewed and indicate no significant differences across the disease waves since the outset of the pandemic.
Suppression of transmission
He said indicators of mobility across the population are low but continue to drift upwards, which is "a cause for concern.”
He added “While there had been some recent increase in the average number of close contacts per adult confirmed case, this indicator remains stable at approximately 2.6.
“We are maintaining a steady suppression of transmission.”
He said that case numbers are now decreasing more slowly at -2 per cent to -4 per cent per day and halving time at 18-36 days, with this rate of decline stable for two weeks.
The best estimate Nphet has for the current R rate is currently 0.6, and he said it appears to be stable or decreasing.
Some key numbers regarding Covid-19 in Ireland at the moment are as follows:
- A total of 4,351 cases have been notified in the seven days to March 2nd, which is a 15 per cent decrease on the previous seven days in which there were 5,116.
- As of March, the seven and 14 day incidence rates per 100,000 population have decreased to 92 and 199, respectively; these compare with rates of 108 and 231 on February 25th.
- Nationally, the seven-day incidence as a proportion of 14 day incidence is 46 per cent, demonstrating that there have been fewer cases in the last seven days compared with the preceding seven days.
- Incidence is decreasing across most age groups except those aged 0-4 years. The decrease in incidence is relatively evenly spread across age groups with the lowest incidence seen in those aged 65-74 years. In the last 14 days, 10 per cent of cases notified were aged over.
- The number of close contacts captured during the week ending February 28th was 9,322, a 15 per cent decrease from the previous week (10,969).
- The average number of close contacts per adult confirmed case remains stable at six contacts per case.
