Despite Taoiseach Simon Harris insisting the Government will serve its full term to March 2025, November remains the most likely time for the next general election, according to former minister for agriculture Ivan Yates.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil performed much better than expected in the recent local and European elections, while Sinn Féin had a disappointing performance.
This has prompted speculation about a snap general election. While this appears unlikely, the autumn has been mooted as the most likely time for a general election, despite Coalition leaders insisting it will be closer to the March 22nd date by which it has to be called.
Speaking to BreakingNews.ie, Mr Yates said November 15th is the most likely date for the next general election.
"I think the only choice is autumn or spring and when they stop to think about it, it gives a better chance of a Sinn Féin resuscitation if they leave it longer. To me, arising out of the fallout of this election, it's almost certain we'll have an autumn election.
"I've always said, when you look at the arithmetic... the Budget is on October 8th, you get some of those resolutions through. November 15th seems to me like a logical, indicative date coming up to Christmas. Whether it's a week or two away from that, it doesn't make much difference.
"All the selection conventions will be going ahead in July now that they have the best of the local candidates to pick from after the election results.
"I think it's make your mind up time, and they're not putting off those selection conventions in the immediate future."
Mr Yates added: "I do understand why the Government can't admit there will be an autumn election, because effectively it's a lame duck administration from that point in time. The civil servants will hang back, and it will create a paralysis in government, and they will be accused of playing games with the election."
Mr Yates said the recent local and European elections are an example of how political opinion polls often get it wrong.
He pointed to how they have "misread Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin for two national elections in a row over a four-year period".
By-elections
Sinn Féin's Kathleen Funchion, Labour's Aodhán Ó Ríordáin, Fianna Fáil's Barry Cowen and Independent Michael McNamara have all been elected as MEPs, meaning four TD seats will be vacant from July 16th.
This would trigger four by-elections, which would have to be held by January 15th, 2025, at the latest.
Mr Yates feels this will also factor into Government's thinking on general election timing.
"I always felt, even when Simon Harris was saying he had no election plans, he would have to stop and reflect given the incumbent government's 20-year history of losing by-elections, which is almost systemic, every side comes at them.
"The only argument I could see in favour of it [holding the by-elections] was in a lot of the constituencies; Carlow-Kilkenny, Clare, Laois-Offaly, there are succession problems with Richard Bruton, Joe Carey, John Paul Phelan, Charlie Flanagan [Fine Gael TDs who will stand down at the next election], it might suit them to dry run a candidate in the form of a by-election.
"All the other arguments are against it. The coldest time of the year, people dying in sleeping bags, on trolleys in hospital, cash flow tight, negative humour, bad weather. All those things play against the incumbent. The last two general elections have been spring elections in which the incumbent government did very badly."
Mr Yates hosts the 'Path to Power' podcast, along with journalist Matt Cooper, with the pair reuniting after hosting the Tonight Show together between 2017 and 2020.
They have spoken about Mr Harris' impact on Fine Gael, and Mr Yates feels the Taoiseach played a crucial factor in their "resurgent" showing in the recent elections.
"After the referendums, and 14 years in government, there was no limit to how low Fine Gael could go. I felt the morale had collapsed, their mojo had gone, and they were stale and tired. The first thing he's done is fix that, but the second thing he has done is get a grip of some of the key things in government policy.
"Harris is attuned to how visceral localised objections can be when it comes to immigration, and has changed the narrative. 'We're listening to you', responding to problems like the tent city. He has his finger on the pulse.
"Look, he is enjoying a honeymoon. Most honeymoons don't last much longer than six months. That's another factor he has to consider. His freshness will endure, but not indefinitely.
"For that reason, I think Harris will come around to the idea of an autumn election. There will have to be agreement between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, they'll want to keep transfers going, so I don't see the government breaking up."
While Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will undoubtedly be looking at going into government together again, Mr Yates predicts it will not be with the Green Party.
"I do see, and hear from senior civil servants and others, that the Greens are seen as a problem in government, not seen as part of the next government.
"Their power, influence and importance within government is diminishing. Six months ago, if Eamon Ryan was upset about something, it would be 'how can we fix this?' Now it is 'what about it?'"
Sinn Féin's election results have led to some speculation about the leadership of Mary Lou McDonald, something which would have been unthinkable even six months ago.
Mr Yates thinks her position is safe. However, he added that the party faces an "existential crisis".
In their wildest nightmares they never saw themselves on 12 per cent or less in a national vote.
"The possibility of changing her so close to an election is a viable option. The possibility of the only other viable candidate coming from Donegal [Pearse Doherty] is a problem, not really connecting with their urban bases in Dublin and Cork and so on.
"Secondly, the nature of leadership contests in Sinn Féin is distinctly different to any other party. In every other party it's a matter for the parliamentary party. If they decide to have a cabal against the leader, they can be shifted within 24 hours. Sinn Féin is not like that, between west Belfast and all the different ard comhairle structures and so on, it is not a party where the parliamentary party is in charge. For all those reasons, I think it is a complete non-runner.
"They're quite good at resolving their problems inside the dressing room.
"I do think Sinn Féin is facing an existential crisis. I think they're partly in denial about it, but in their wildest nightmares they never saw themselves on 12 per cent or less in a national vote."
While the turnout for the local and European elections was around 40 per cent, it is likely to be at least 20 per cent higher when it comes to a general election.
Mr Yates feels these voters are more likely to veer towards Sinn Féin than the Government.
"There are a number of factors that make the general election different. Firstly, the people who did not go out to vote are prime Sinn Féin voters. A lot of working people, young people who still feel that the older generation stole their wealth and opportunities. It's a serious divide.
"The pro-government scenario still sells the 50 per cent, but the problem with Sinn Féin is they've lost ultranationalist voters who they won't get back, about 4 per cent of the vote which had been very receptive to Sinn Féin.
"They're now being assailed, not so much by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael who have the over-55s, it's more the resurgence of the soft left, the Social Democrats and Labour. On the other flank, independents, people who will not vote for government or Sinn Féin.
"I actually think that the centre has held in terms of no lurch to the left. I think the more there is apprehension about the future of the economy, the worse Sinn Féin will do.
"I can still see a situation where they would get a minimum of 30-something TDs. They have the advantage of incumbency that they didn't have with councillors, but they have 36 TDs."
He added that the Government should not get "carried away" by the recent elections.
"Twenty-three per cent is much better than the polls had them at, but it's still 23 per cent."
"Even combining their support, it's 45, 46 per cent. That's what one party used to get. Let's be clear about it, the loyalty to the old big parties is a fraction of what it was," he added.
Some political sources have predicted that tensions between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil could be an issue, but Mr Yates feels this will spur both parties on.
He pointed to transfers between the two parties as a new voting phenomenon that has changed Irish politics.
"I'm thinking of John Mullins, whose transfers helped Cynthia Ní Mhurchú get elected. Seán Kelly's surplus, more of it went to Billy Kelleher than anywhere else.
"The biggest benefit of them going into government together is that it has incidentally produced this. They never said before the election 'we're doing a transfer pact'. It has just evolved that way in the eyes of the public."
"I think their policy differences are miniscule. Therefore, the public have copped that and they vote accordingly," he added.
Mr Yates feels the "political landscape has shifted", adding that the possibility of Sinn Féin not being involved in the next government was unthinkable a year ago.
However, he feels they are still very much in contention.
The public have decided what they don't want, but they haven't decided what they do want.
"I could still see them being the largest party, but it is clear their performance is patchy where they have TDs not performing. Whereas where they have David Cullinane, Eoin Ó Broin and Mark Ward they are strong. It's a different scenario to where they've had either no TD or one who was elected with the shock factor and not expected to be a TD.
"All the firepower from parties will now be on Independents. 'They're not suitable to run a government, wishy washy'. In the same way, Sinn Féin when they were the clear front runner had a target on their backs from everyone.
"Harris has changed the game, there's no question. Even their [Fine Gael] attitude to being in govermment has changed. I spoke to senior people in the party who were looking to a watershed where they would need to rejuvenate in opposition, and are now saying 'I enjoyed being a minister'.
"It's hard to predict with certainty any grouping; Independents, Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael, Sinn Féin, soft left, any grouping to get more than 40 seats is a tall order. The public have decided what they don't want, but they haven't decided what they do want."
