Politicians are “eagerly awaiting” the results of a constituency boundary review which could decide the electoral fates of many TDs and ministers.
The much-anticipated new constituency boundaries will see the number of seats in Dáil Éireann increase from 160 TDs to at least 172 or as many as 181.
The redrawing of boundaries has been prompted by a boom in the population to 5.15 million, as shown in Census 2022 – an increase of 8 per cent in four years.
As the Irish constitution says there needs to be one TD to represent every 20,000 to 30,000 people in Ireland, the constituency boundaries will shift – though to what extent is still unknown.
Asked whether he was nervous about the outcome of the review, Minister for Finance Michael McGrath said they were “eagerly awaiting” the outcome of the review, but added “we’ll cross every bridge when we come to it”.
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Part 1 of 2@Ireland_Votes @OireachtasNews pic.twitter.com/N08Gd3yjUW— An Coimisiún Toghcháin, The Electoral Commission (@ElecCommIRL) August 21, 2023
“I’ll sleep soundly tonight,” he said.
The Fianna Fáil TD, whose Cork South-Central constituency is a four-seater, said the review would be “accepted and implemented” even if “the ball bounces in a way you don’t want it to”.
“You’ve just got to take it on the chin and move on.”
His junior ministerial colleague and Mayo TD Dara Calleary added: “I’ve always taken the view we can’t control it.
“We control the controllables and what happens tomorrow morning will happen, we’ll deal with it afterwards.”
But not only that. It is important that each one of our TDs – from Donegal to Kerry – represents a similar number of people. More on this here: https://t.co/FPppXkTnuX… #ConstituencyReview23@citizensinfo pic.twitter.com/nVjbg06hBJ
— An Coimisiún Toghcháin, The Electoral Commission (@ElecCommIRL) August 28, 2023
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According to electoral laws, each constituency should have between three and five elected members, with three-seaters seen as advantageous to large political parties and five-seaters an easier job for smaller parties and independents to get over the quota threshold.
Any change in population that means more than six seats are needed could see parts of one constituency added to another, or one five-seat constituency cut into two three-seat constituencies – which threatens to split elected candidates’ votes.
The law says a redrawing of constituencies which breaches county boundaries should be avoided where possible, it should follow geographical markers, and should be “as much continuity of electoral areas as possible”.
The Electoral Commission has received 556 submissions from elected representatives, political parties and academics about the redrawing of boundaries, representing what Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe called “red-hot interest” in the issue.
Asked whether there should eventually be a cap on the number of TDs in the Dáil, Mr McGrath said: “I think it would be interesting to hear what the [Electoral] Commission have to say on that matter tomorrow because of course, that formed very directly a part of their consideration.
Follow us here to see the changes we’re suggesting and our reasons for suggesting them. https://t.co/HbHinhwXCD #ConstituencyReview23
— An Coimisiún Toghcháin, The Electoral Commission (@ElecCommIRL) August 29, 2023
“I would make the point overall that the bands that we have currently in the constitution has formed the basis of representation.
“And if you were to increase the amount of population per TD, it will inevitably have a consequence on the ability of an individual member to provide a quality service, and our constituents do like direct contact.
“They like personal engagement with their Oireachtas members.
“So let’s wait and see what the Commission say on that issue tomorrow, but I’d be very reluctant to tamper with a structure that I think has served us well since the foundation of the state.”
Local council and European Parliament elections will be held next summer.
A general election is heavily rumoured to be set for November next year, after the final Budget of the three-party coalition Government is officially confirmed.
