A cyber-security expert has warned the Consultative Forum on International Security Policy that future threats include the risk of quantum computing breaking through traditional data encryption.
Chris Johnson, pro-vice chancellor at the Engineering Faculty of Queens University Belfast, characterised Ireland as being “in good shape” in terms of risk assessment.
However, during the session on new and emerging threat of cybersecurity, he pointed out several other potential attacks which may pose threats to Ireland.
These included attacks on machine-learning algorithms and variations of ransomware which involves tampering with data.
He also said he was “extremely sensitive” of the security of renewable-energy companies, which will be increasingly relied upon.
In a further warning, Mr Johnson said the future will involve machine-learning within weapons systems.
“Within this context, you have to ask yourself: Does neutrality provide you with sufficient defence against adversaries that are equipped with those sort of weapons?
“If not, what are you going to ask your 18 and 19-year-old men and women to do.”
He said there was a need for militaries to rethink the future of warfare.
Mr Johnson said if he lived in the Republic of Ireland, he would “not be confident given what I see around me today”.
Elsewhere in the session, the director of cyber defence for the EU’s military staff was asked what cyber-security lessons were learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Brigadier General Sean White said one major lesson arose out of the fact that “cyber-attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure has been a feature throughout the conflict”.
“Key critical military functions, particularly of the Ukrainian military but also of militaries throughout Europe, are increasingly dependent on ensured and assured access to networks.
“So information assurance becomes a key factor in this area: Do you trust the information you’re receiving for all your networks?
“Because at the end of the day, you must be able to trust your information in order to plan and conduct your operations which in turn leads to force protection for your troops on the ground.”
Brig Gen White said the military is increasingly dependent on civilian infrastructure and services.
He said the military is consistently assessing the threat of growing and developing in the types of networks being used, including Internet of Things (IoT) device networks.
He said they assess whether smart watches or fridges may be giving off geolocation data which could compromise troops on the ground.
Brig Gen White said there has been “rapid software development” over the last number of months in Ukraine with new threats and vulnerabilities arising practically on a daily basis.
“One other key feature we have observed is a particular emphasis on the storage and classification of nation state data.
“Where is it going to be located? Do we look at a cloud model? Do we look at off site? Do we look at another country? It is something to think about.
“We can assess that in this conflict and future conflicts cyber attacks will become a ubiquitous and routine feature that could potentially lead to further unintended consequences such as the KA-SAT attack, ostensibly against the Ukrainian military but did have certain downstream effects against wind power turbines in Germany and certain other areas.”
In this context he said a key lesson was that the segregation of military and civilian infrastructure could intentionally afford more protection to such networks.
“However, having said that – the inter-dependency between physical and digital infrastructure and the potential for significant cyber-security incidents to disrupt or damage critical infrastructure is high.”
He said this illustrated that the EU needs closer civilian and military cooperation in cyberspace to become a stronger security provider for its citizens.
However, Mr Johnson was critical of the idea of separating military and civilian infrastructure and cited the need for cooperation in Ireland’s air traffic management system.
“The integration of technology, means increasingly the infrastructure we rely on is dual-use.”
He said effects on water and energy systems impact the military as well as civilians.
Mr Johnson, a software specialist on the SESAR scientific board advising the European Commission on the future of Air Traffic Management, said cyber-security has to be an all-island problem across Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
He said the cyber-security of Ireland’s infrastructure needs to be looked after now to protect it for future generations.
Brig Gen White said there were still situations where there needs to be segregation from civilian infrastructure like military communications.
Chairing the panel, National Cyber Security Centre director Richard Browne said the agency is “acutely conscious” of the need to protect east-west and north-south infrastructure, including the all-island electricity grid.
