Sinn Féin has “every confidence” it can get an MEP elected in Dublin, in a race which could be seen as a microcosm of the national state of play.
A hazy picture of the possible result in the constituency began to emerge during counting for a concurrent local election at centres across the country on Saturday.
While the official count for the European election will not begin until Sunday, the opening of ballot boxes allowed observers to calculate a rough sense of how individuals are performing as the voting sheets were sorted.
Three incumbents are seeking re-election in the four-seat constituency.
They are Ciarán Cuffe, who was elected five years ago as part of the so-called Green wave across Europe, independent socialist Clare Daly and Fianna Fáil’s Barry Andrews.
Fine Gael ran Senator Regina Doherty in a bid to replace outgoing party MEP Frances Fitzgerald.
Meanwhile, Sinn Féin senator Lynn Boylan is vying to return to Europe after losing her job as an MEP in the 2019 elections.
Labour’s Aodhán Ó Ríordáin, People Before Profit’s Brid Smith, and Social Democrats hopeful Sinead Gibney are also competing for seats.
Based on the incomplete tally of boxes being opened in the Dublin count centre, it appears that Mr Andrews and Ms Doherty will safely secure the first two seats.
The success of the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil candidates is reflective of a strong general national trend from the local election results.
However, it remains unclear who will claim the remaining positions in the constituency.
Their coalition partners the Greens are in the mix for the two other seats against opposition parties Sinn Féin, Labour, Social Democrats and People Before Profit.
Fine Gael appears to have had a “Harris hop” in the polls after the shock resignation of Leo Varadkar as leader of the party earlier this year, leading to Simon Harris taking over that position as well as the role of Irish premier.
Speaking at the RDS count centre, Ms Doherty said: “The support from the party leader has certainly provided new energy, and I think he’s infused everybody’s campaign and given us that extra pep in our step for the last couple of months.”
She added: “People really have responded and there seems to be a great affection towards him.”
Asked if she believed her support would not have been as strong under Mr Varadkar, Ms Doherty said: “I think we all kind of felt that maybe we would be facing a tougher election.
“Like, a couple of months ago, I think we probably would have been preparing for a different kind of election but it’s been a thoroughly enjoyable experience over the last couple of weeks, probably because of the way people have responded to us.”
Sinn Féin, as the third “big party”, would hope that it can get Ms Boylan over the line – especially after the decision to also run another candidate, Daithi Doolan, in Dublin.
Since the party suffered dismal results in the 2019 elections, Sinn Féin has seen a surge in support in national opinion polls.
However, that popularity has waned significantly over the last eight months and the party appears to be performing worse than it would have hoped in this year’s elections.
Anecdotally, observers noticed that many voters who had backed one of the Sinn Fein representatives on their ballot had failed to express a subsequent preference for their running mate.
It puts doubt on how many votes could directly transfer from Mr Doolan to Ms Boylan.
Speaking to reporters at the count centre, Mr Doolan said he has “every confidence” that Sinn Fein will retake a seat in Europe.
“We ran a team of two to maximise the vote – we’ve done that. And I’m very, very confident Lynn Boylan will be taking her rightful place back in Europe.”
Asked about vote transfers to his party colleague, he added: “We will transfer really well together, we always have done.
“I expect that if I get eliminated – we’ll be fighting for two seats – but if transfers come into play, I’ve every confidence I’m going to go to Lynn Boylan.”
“We ran a really, really good campaign together as a team.”
Meanwhile, there is also the possibility that popular independent Niall Boylan, a radio presenter, could edge ahead of one of these established parties.
That could be seen as indicative of an observed surge in support for independents in the polls.
Speaking on Saturday, Mr Cuffe said the race was “hard to call” but said he hoped that his work over the last five years would have convinced his constituents to get him elected.
Asked if he believed he could stay ahead of Mr Ó Ríordáin and Ms Gibney, the at-risk MEP added: “For the wildebeest, you just have to stay ahead of the lion.”
Speaking to the PA news agency, Mr Ó Ríordáin said: “It’s only a partial tally, it’s very imbalanced. But look we’re in the mix and that’s all we can ask for really.”
