On the night of the US presidential election, November 5th/6th, polls will close at different times across the United States, usually on the hour.
As soon as this happens, a state can be “called” by the US news networks for either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.
This will take place only when the networks are confident that a candidate will win the state.
For those states that traditionally vote solidly Republican (such as Wyoming and Oklahoma) or Democrat (California and New York), it is likely to happen almost the moment the polls close, before a single vote has been officially counted.
But where the race is expected to be close, in so-called “swing states” such as Arizona, Georgia or Pennsylvania, the networks will want to wait until most votes are actually counted and reported before making a projection.
Because of this, some states might not be called for Ms Harris or Mr Trump for hours, possibly days.
In 2020, Pennsylvania was the state that gave Joe Biden enough votes to guarantee he would be president, but it was not called for Mr Biden by most of the US networks until the Saturday after the election – a wait of four days.
A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win the US presidential election.
Each state is allotted a fixed number of electoral votes (EVs), based roughly on the size of its population.
Whoever wins the popular vote in a state also wins all of that state’s EVs (with two exceptions, Maine and Nebraska, which are explained below).
Here is a guide to how US election night is likely to unfold.
In all cases, the time given is when the last polls close in each state, according to the AP news agency, and all times are GMT.
– 12am November 6th
Donald Trump should be off the mark when polls close in three traditional Republican strongholds: Indiana (which is worth 11 electoral votes), Kentucky (eight) and South Carolina (nine).
Kamala Harris will pick up the safe Democratic states of Vermont (three EVs) and Virginia (13).
Polls also close in the first of the swing states: Georgia (16 EVs).
Joe Biden won this state narrowly in 2020, but the result was confirmed only after several days of counting and recounting.
If the outcome in Georgia is close again, as is likely, it could take a similar wait before the winner becomes clear.
– 12.30am
West Virginia (four EVs), a safe Republican state, should be called quickly for Mr Trump.
Ohio (17 EVs) used to be a swing state – Barack Obama won close contests here in 2008 and 2012 – but since 2016 it has trended towards safe Republican territory and should be called for Mr Trump reasonably promptly.
By contrast, North Carolina (16 EVs) has become a swing state at this election, with opinion polls suggesting either candidate has a chance of victory.
As such, the winner might not become clear for some time.
– 1am
A flurry of projections is likely when polls close in more than a dozen safe states.
Ms Harris should pick up the Democrat-leaning states of Connecticut (seven EVs), Delaware (three), Illinois (19), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Hampshire (four), New Jersey (14) and Rhode Island (four), along with the District of Columbia (three).
Mr Trump ought to see Alabama (nine), Florida (30), Mississippi (six), Missouri (10), Oklahoma (seven) and Tennessee (11) added to his tally.
Maine does not have a winner-take-all policy for its four electoral votes; rather, it allocates two votes to the winner within each of its two Congressional districts and two to the winner of the overall state-wide popular vote.
In 2020, Joe Biden won the two state-wide votes and one of the district votes, giving him three of the four votes up for grabs, while Donald Trump won the other district vote.
Polls are also due to close in another of the swing states, Pennsylvania (19 EVs).
The state was solidly Democrat until Mr Trump won it narrowly in 2016, before Mr Biden took it back in 2020.
Due to the huge number of postal and early votes cast, which will need to be sorted and counted, the outcome in Pennsylvania is not likely to be known for some considerable time.
– 1.30am
Polls close in Arkansas (six EVs), another strongly Republican state.
– 2am
A rush of safe states should deliver a sizeable number of electoral votes for both candidates.
Kansas (six EVs), Iowa (six), Louisiana (eight), North Dakota (three), South Dakota (three), Texas (40) and Wyoming (three) are all likely to be called fairly quickly for Mr Trump.
Ms Harris ought to collect Colorado (10 EVs), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (five) and New York (28).
Nebraska, like Maine, does not have a winner-take-all policy and instead splits its electoral votes – in this case, allocating three votes to the winner within each of its three Congressional districts and two to the winner of the overall state-wide popular vote.
In 2020, Joe Biden won one of the three district votes, while Donald Trump won the other two plus the two state-wide votes, giving him four of the five votes up for grabs.
Polls also close in three swing states: Arizona (11 EVs), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10), all of which – if the outcome is close – could take days to be decided.
Mr Biden won all three of these states in 2020, while Mr Trump picked up all three in 2016.
– 3am
Mr Trump will add two more states to his tally when polls close in the safe Republican states of Montana (four EVs) and Utah (six).
Polls also close in the last of the swing states, Nevada, where six EVs are up for grabs – though as with the other battlegrounds, it could be hours, if not days, before the winner is known.
Nevada has been won repeatedly by Democrats in recent decades, but opinion polls suggest the result this year is on a knife’s edge.
– 4am
Ms Harris’s numbers will get a boost when polls close in three very safe Democratic states: California (54 EVs), Oregon (eight) and Washington (12).
Idaho (four EVs) should be called for Mr Trump.
– 5am
Polls close in another safe Democratic state, Hawaii (four EVs).
– 6am
Alaska is the last state to conclude voting, and its three electoral votes should be called for Mr Trump.
But there is every likelihood that the overall winner of the election still won’t be known, given the time it will take to count all the ballots in all the swing states.
If there has been a landslide for either Ms Harris or Mr Trump, then some news networks might be tempted to name a winner by now.
If it is shaping up to be a close contest, get ready to wait days, if not weeks, for the identity of the next president to be confirmed.
