Democratic senator Joe Manchin has announced he will not seek re-election in 2024, giving Republicans a prime opportunity to pick up a seat in the heavily ‘red state’ of West Virginia.
Mr Manchin, 76, said in a statement that he had made the decision “after months of deliberation and long conversations” with his family.
“I believe in my heart of hearts that I have accomplished what I set out to do for West Virginia,” he said. “I have made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided that I will not be running for re-election to the United States Senate, but what I will be doing is travelling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilise the middle and bring Americans together.”
His decision to retire severely hampers Democratic hopes of holding on to the coal-country seat. For the last few years, Mr Manchin has been the only Democrat elected to statewide office in West Virginia, a long-time politician who has served as governor, secretary of state and state legislator.
To the West Virginians who have put their trust in me and fought side by side to make our state better – it has been an honor of my life to serve you. Thank you. My statement on my political future: pic.twitter.com/dz8JuXAyTL
Advertisement— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) November 9, 2023
Republican challengers began clamouring for the Senate seat even before Mr Manchin’s announcement, with representative Alex Mooney jumping in the race less than two weeks after winning his fifth term in the House in November.
Already, 2024 was shaping up to be a tough election cycle for Senate Democrats. The party will be forced to defend 23 seats, including three held by independents, compared to just 10 seats for Republicans. Mr Manchin is one of just three Democratic senators up for re-election in 2024 who represent a state won by former president Donald Trump, a Republican, in the 2020 election.
Mr Manchin, a conservative Democrat, was both a critical vote and a constant headache for his party in the first two years of President Joe Biden’s term. In a 50-50 chamber that Democrats controlled by virtue of vice president Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote, Mr Manchin leveraged his political power to shape legislation to his liking.
Along with senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, a Democrat who switched to an independent after last year’s mid-terms, he helped water down much of Mr Biden’s social spending agenda. He has frequently clashed with members of his own party over his strong support for coal and other fossil fuels.
Days before last year’s mid-terms, he blasted Mr Biden for being “cavalier” and “divorced from reality” after vowing to shut down coal-fired power plants and rely more heavily on wind and solar energy in the future. He demanded a public apology from Mr Biden, and the White House acquiesced by issuing a statement saying the president “regrets it if anyone hearing these remarks took offence”.
Mr Manchin’s announcement comes just a year after Democrats increased their Senate majority to 51-49 by flipping a Republican-held seat in Pennsylvania. The practical effect of that victory was giving Democrats the ability to pass bills while losing one vote within their caucus — taking away Mr Manchin’s power to single-handedly thwart some of his party’s priorities.
Mr Manchin regained some of that influence after Ms Sinema switched parties, though she made clear that she would not caucus with Republicans. Ms Sinema is also up for re-election in 2024 but has not yet announced her plans.
Mr Manchin entered the Senate after winning a special election in 2010 following the death of Robert C Byrd. He won re-election in both 2012 and 2018, with the latter campaign his toughest in his three-plus decades in West Virginia politics. He defeated Reoublican Patrick Morrisey by just over 3 percentage points.
Registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans during Mr Manchin’s first two Senate campaigns, but things have changed since then. Now, about 39% of registered voters are Republicans, compared with 33% for Democrats and about 24% with no party affiliation.
Both chambers of the legislature have Republican supermajorities, and Mr Trump overwhelmingly won the state in 2016 and 2020.
Mr Manchin’s penchant for not following fellow Democrats on some key votes was a cause of angst and bruised relationships within his own party. It even prompted independent senator Bernie Sanders to suggest that he would support a 2024 primary challenger to Mr Manchin.
Mr Manchin’s split with the White House prompted Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell to publicly invite him to join his party. Mr Manchin held firm there, too, insisting that he saw himself as a Democrat.
During Mr Manchin’s first two terms in the Senate, West Virginia lost thousands of coal jobs as companies and utilities explored using other energy sources such as natural gas, solar and wind.
Mr Manchin later promoted the Biden administration’s plans to involve the state in the development of clean energy. But his push to speed permits for natural gas pipelines and other energy projects – including a planned pipeline in his home state – failed.
Under Mr Trump, Mr Manchin was the only Democrat to vote for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2018 and among three Democrats to support nominee Neil Gorsuch in 2017. But he voted with Democrats on other key issues, including a failed 2017 effort by Republicans to repeal the Affordable Care Act passed under former president Barack Obama.
