The Earth is approaching six environmental and technological tipping points that could prove disastrous for humanity if not addressed, according to a UN report.
Tipping points are identified as the moments at which complex systems, such as the global food network or a natural ecosystem, are pushed beyond their capacity to absorb pressures and change permanently or even collapse.
Human actions are pushing many of the Earth’s natural systems towards these tipping points and the UN said there are six ahead of us – accelerating extinctions, groundwater depletion, melting of mountain glaciers, space debris, unbearable heat and a future that is uninsurable.
Tipping points are connected and crossing one could hasten the approach of another, the UN researchers said.
Orbiting around Earth are millions of pieces of broken rocket satellites or rocket stages that are too small to be tracked but have the potential to destroy working space infrastructure.
Each new spacecraft launched, with up to 100,000 expected by 2030, increases the risk of collision between this “space junk” and satellites and the UN researchers warned this could make the Earth’s orbit unusable in the future.
This would affect people’s ability to predict storms, monitor climate change and understand the state of groundwater sources, making it more difficult for people to avoid reaching tipping points in those areas.
Dr Jack O’Connor, one of the lead authors of the Interconnected Disaster Risks Report, likened human behaviour to removing pieces from a Jenga block where the game eventually reaches a tipping point and the structure can no longer stand up.
He said: “Picture yourself in a car driving down the road and you look out the window and you see signs by the side of the road saying that ahead the road is out and you’re heading towards a cliff now as you’re speeding along this road.
“The signs are clearly saying that the cliff is getting closer and closer and you need to turn around now to avoid catastrophe. What would you do?
“What we see is that often, not only are we failing to slow the car down, but often we’re pressing our foot down further on the accelerator.”
He said the six tipping points share similar root causes – “insufficient risk management” and “prioritising profits” as well as “extractive attitudes towards shared resources and places that result in prioritising short-term gains for some at the cost of long-term benefits for all”.
Published by the UN University – Institute for Environment and Human Security, the report identified Saudi Arabia as having already past a groundwater tipping point as it can no longer support its own agriculture and must import wheat, with India and the United States approaching similar scenarios.
Using underground water resources faster than they can be replenished also weakens farmers’ ability to survive droughts and risks threatening food systems on which billions of people rely.
Dr Zita Sebesvari, also lead author of the report, said people can either avoid or adapt to tipping points, but the best solution is to transform the way we live and behave on a global scale to avoid climate change, species extinction and resource depletion so that future generations have the same rights afforded to us in the present.
She said: “This is what we call in the report being a good ancestor. What does it mean?
“In practice, it is to build in, in our decision making and in our choices, very firmly and structurally, the rights and options of future generations.
“There are some good examples out there, but by far not enough and what the report concludes with is that we’re mainly seeing delay-type of actions currently undertaken and clearly not enough to actually steer away society from those dangerous tipping points.”
