Senior diplomats from the world’s richest and largest developing nations have struggled to find common ground over Russia’s war in Ukraine and how to deal with its global impact.
At talks that were were knocked off balance by two shock political developments far from the Indonesian resort of Bali which is hosting the meeting, Group of 20 (G20) foreign ministers heard an emotional plea for unity and an end to the war from their Indonesian host.
However, consensus appears to remain elusive amid deepening East-West splits driven by China and Russia on one side and the United States and Europe on the other.
Inadequate infrastructure investment, along with growing inequalities and climate and environmental change have exacerbated the economies’ vulnerabilities to shocks such as the Covid-19 pandemic. There is an urgent need to provide policy alternatives to address these challenges. pic.twitter.com/WN6qvRb7Qt
— G20 Indonesia (@g20org) July 7, 2022
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All the main players were there, marking the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that US secretary of state Antony Blinken and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and many others have been in the same room.
The meeting opened only hours after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced his resignation, prompting his Foreign Secretary Liz Truss to depart. The summit had only just got under way when it emerged that former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe had been shot at an election campaign event.
One goal of Friday’s meeting was to lay the groundwork for the upcoming G20 summit that Indonesia will host in November.
Many, if not all, of the participants expressed their shock at Mr Abe’s shooting that occurred as they were holding the first of two plenary sessions on the importance of restoring confidence in multilateralism and upholding the global rules-based order.
Indonesian foreign minister Retno Marsudi urged the group — which included Mr Lavrov, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, Mr Blinken and several European counterparts — to overcome mistrust for the sake of a planet confronting multiple challenges from coronavirus to climate change as well as Ukraine.
“The world has yet to recover from the pandemic but we are already confronted with another crisis: the war in Ukraine,” Ms Marsudi said. “The ripple effects are being felt globally on food, on energy and physical space.”
She noted that poor and developing countries now face the brunt of fuel and grain shortages resulting from the war in Ukraine and said that the G20 has a responsibility to step up to deal with the matter to ensure the rules-based global order remains relevant.
The Ukraine war has shaken that order, she said, as Mr Lavrov appeared to shuffle papers without expression at his seat in between the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Mexico.
The #G20 Forum starts in Bali today. Local crises often become global challenges. That is why multilateral cooperation through fora like the G20 is more important than ever. Together we can counter challenges like food and energy insecurity worsened by Russia's war on Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/NVOb6HfNQW
— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) July 8, 2022
“Honestly, we cannot deny that it has become more difficult for the world to sit together,” Ms Marsudi said. Indeed, though they sat around the same large conference table for the opening, neither Mr Lavrov nor Mr Blinken showed any interest in each other and the two had no plans to meet.
“The current world situation makes people lose faith in multilateralism and its capacity to respond effectively to global challenges,” she said.
“So it is our responsibility to end the war sooner than later and settle our differences at the negotiating table, not at the battlefield. The world is watching us, so we cannot fail.”
Ms Marsudi’s comments were the only portion of the conference that was open to the media, although individual ministers held separate one-on-one and smaller group meetings on the sidelines.
At their meeting, Mr Blinken hailed Ms Marsudi’s speech. “We see the effects of Covid still lingering around the world, unfortunately we also see the effects of the Russian aggression against Ukraine making things even more difficult than they already were,” he told her.
Notwithstanding her appeal, there was little prospect for achieving consensuses on weighty issues that have been a hallmark of past gatherings.
US officials say they are determined not to allow distractions to divert attention from what they believe should be the primary focuses of the Bali conference: the disruption to world food and energy supplies caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine, blaming Moscow for it, and marshalling a response to halt shortages that are already wreaking havoc in Africa, Asia and elsewhere.
However, with East and West so divided and North-South differences emerging, the potential for a G20 agreement on a way forward appears negligible.
US officials hinted there would be no group communique as there has been in previous years on key issues like terrorism, transnational crime, climate and economic matters.
American officials also said it was less important for the G20 to present a unified stance as an entity than it would be for smaller blocs of countries and individual nations to speak out and take action.
The competition for support among the sides has been fierce. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and Mr Lavrov each stopped in various Asian capitals on their way to Bali, drumming up support for various Chinese and Russian positions and fortifying their ties among non-allied nations.
Mr Blinken, the French, Germans and the UK, meanwhile, all arrived in Bali from two Western-oriented and organised gatherings in Europe last week: the G7 and Nato summits at which there was little sign of rancour or debate, and unity on Ukraine was assured.
With its broader membership, including countries like host Indonesia and large developing nations like India, Brazil, South Africa and others, the G20 is far more diverse, sceptical of Western intentions and more open to entreaties and offers from big neighbours like China and Russia and more vulnerable to their threats.
Attempting to ply a middle route, this year’s G20 president, Indonesia, has tried to bridge what gaps are possible, laying out an agenda that is not inherently divisive or political.
The country has sought to remain neutral in dealing with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and President Joko Widodo has been guarded in his comments.
But as is often the case, the largest participants will likely control the final message and China, Russia and the US are battling for supremacy.
Mr Blinken does plan to meet on Saturday with Mr Wang as the US and China are at severe and worsening odds over numerous issues ranging from tariffs and trade and human rights to Taiwan and disputes in the South China Sea.
US officials said they do not expect Saturday’s meeting to produce any breakthroughs on these issues but expressed hope that it would help keep lines of communications open and create “guardrails” to guide the world’s two largest economies as they navigate increasingly complex and potentially explosive matters.
