Labour is on course for the biggest election victory in the party’s history, surpassing Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide, a poll has suggested.
The party looks set to win as many as 422 seats, with the Tories reduced to just 140, according to YouGov analysis published on Monday.
The poll, using the MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) technique and carried out for Sky News, suggests Keir Starmer’s party is on course for a majority of 194 – the largest margin for any party since 1924.
Our first MRP of the 2024 general election shows Labour winning a majority of 194, larger than even Tony Blair's landslides
Labour: 422 (+220 from GE2019)
Conservative: 140 (-225)
Lib Dem: 48 (+37)
SNP: 17 (-31)
Green: 2 (+1)
PC: 2 (-2)
Reform UK: 0 (=)https://t.co/P20M6KsS4p pic.twitter.com/bRkmaVeAwh— YouGov (@YouGov) June 3, 2024
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Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and former minister Jacob Rees-Mogg are among prominent figures projected to lose their seats.
The data, collected from more than 58,000 people, will make grim reading for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as it shows Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives since March despite a recent policy blitz by the ruling party.
Mr Starmer is projected to become prime minister next month with his party clocking up more gains than at any election since 1945, potentially leaving the Tories with their lowest number of MPs since 2001.
MRP models the outcome of the election in every constituency across Britain by identifying the views of different types of voters and then the type of voters in each seat.
The Liberal Democrats would win 48 seats, according to the forecast, with the SNP on 17 and the Green Party gaining another MP.
A separate MRP analysis, published by More in Common and the News Agents podcast earlier on Monday, had suggested that Labour was on course for its biggest majority in 23 years.
That analysis is based on voting intention data collected between April 9 and May 29 from 15,089 adults in Great Britain.
