A new poll suggests Scottish voters back independence over remaining in the UK – but signals warnings for the de facto referendum method.
The YouGov poll, reported by the Times, of 1,090 voters found 47 per cent would favour independence, while 42 per cent support staying in the union.
Support for independence has increased by 4 per cent since a previous survey in October, while the No vote fell by three points.
Some 8 per cent were undecided, would not vote or did not state their preference.
However, when these voters were excluded, independence support totalled 53 per cent compared with 47 per cent for the union.
The Supreme Court ruled last month that Holyrood cannot hold a legal referendum without the consent of Westminster.
First Minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon then said the next general election will act as a “de facto referendum” – with more than 50 per cent of the vote for pro-independence parties needed for a mandate.
But the survey shows voters could be unsure of that plan, with support for the SNP in a general election projected to fall two points to 43 per cent.
Fifty-two per cent said they do not think a pro-independence vote majority would constitute a mandate for a referendum – with 23 per cent of SNP supporters agreeing with this view.
Meanwhile, 39 per cent of people said the de facto referendum would be enough to leave the UK, while 9 per cent were not sure.
However, 51 per cent believed the Scottish Parliament should have the power to hold the ballot, compared with 39 per cent against and 10 per cent undecided.
Voters were also against a 2023 referendum – 52 per cent – with 38 per cent in favour and 9 per cent unsure, however 51 per cent did say there should be a vote within the next five years.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said the poll was the highest pro-independence result recorded by YouGov, equalling a result last seen in August 2020.
He said: “On this evidence, just saying ‘no’ to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy for maintaining public support for the union.”
His analysis puts the SNP at 46 MPs in the Commons at the next election, to be held before January 2025 – a fall of two.
It is the fourth consecutive poll on independence which has showed a lead for the Yes support, following surveys from Redfield and Wilton Strategies, Ipsos and Find Out Now.
