Labour is on course for a 262-seat majority in the upcoming UK general election, analysis by pollster Survation has suggested.
The analysis and modelling based on more than 40,000 surveys indicates Labour is ahead in 456 seats, with the Tories in first place with just 72.
Meanwhile, a voting intention poll by Savanta also contained bad news for UK prime minister Rishi Sunak, with a warning the Tories could face “electoral extinction”.
NEW: First MRP Since Farage’s return.
Labour on course for 262 seat majority.
LAB 456
CON 72
LD 56
SNP 37
RFM 7
PC 2
GRN 1
42,269 interviews conducted online and on the phone
Fwk 31 May - 13 June
Conducted on behalf of @BestForBritain.@VasilSurvation and @JackSurvation…— Survation. (@Survation) June 15, 2024
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The Survation model puts the Liberal Democrats on 56 seats, the SNP on 37, with Reform UK currently favourites on seven seats.
The analysis suggests Plaid Cymru are on track for two seats and the Greens would hold Brighton Pavilion.
The Survation study for campaign group Best For Britain used the multilevel with poststratification (MRP) technique to model results in constituencies.
Survation polled 42,269 people online or over the telephone between May 31st and June 13th.
It is the first MRP analysis since Nigel Farage returned to the political frontline.
In its interpretation of the findings, Survation said: “Since Farage’s announcement to take over as leader of Reform UK, we’ve seen a rise in their vote share in national polling, and now we are seeing how this can result in seat gains.
“Unsurprisingly, Reform are making significant gains in places where the Conservatives are losing the most, and are currently the leading party by vote share in seven seats. Reform are also currently performing better than the Conservatives in 59 seats.”
Our first MRP Update Since Farage's Return https://t.co/SkeD0UHOWl pic.twitter.com/IkGla8flVj
— Vasil Lazarov (@VasilSurvation) June 15, 2024
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The Savanta study for the Sunday Telegraph gave Labour a 25-point lead, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party on 46 per cent, up two from last week, and the Tories on 21 per cent, down four points.
It is the lowest share that the Conservatives have had with the pollster under Mr Sunak.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: “Our research suggests that this election could be nothing short of electoral extinction for the Conservative Party.
“The hopes of Conservative candidates are being shot to pieces by poll after poll showing the Conservative Party in increasingly dire straits – and we’re only halfway through the campaign.
“There’s a real sense that things could still get worse for the Conservatives, and with postal votes about to drop through millions of letterboxes, time is already close to running out for Rishi Sunak.”
Reform UK were on 13 per cent, up three points, the Liberal Democrats up two points on 11 per cent, the Greens up one point on 5 per cent and the SNP down one on 2 per cent.
