The majority of voters in Poland’s general election supported opposition parties that promised to reverse democratic backsliding and repair the nation’s relationship with allies including the European Union and Ukraine, near-complete results have showed.
The result was a disappointment for the ruling Law and Justice party and its leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who have governed Poland for eight years with a conservative, nationalist and sometimes anti-EU agenda.
Though it remains Poland’s biggest party, Law and Justice lost its majority in parliament, putting a centrist opposition led by former EU president Donald Tusk in a strong position to take over power, official results showed with more than 99% of districts counted. After a bitter and emotional campaign, turnout was projected at almost 74%, the highest in the country’s 34 years of democracy.
It was among the most important elections in an EU country this year, and the results have been anxiously awaited in Brussels, Berlin and other capitals by observers hoping that a step-by-step dismantling of checks and balances could be halted before a turn towards authoritarianism that would be hard to reverse.
Another term for Law and Justice would have been seen as a bad omen in Brussels, which has to contend with Hungary, where democratic erosion has gone much further under Prime Minister Viktor Orban. New concerns arose after the leftist pro-Russia and Orban ally Robert Fico won an election in Slovakia.
The outcome in Poland could also affect ties with neighbouring Ukraine, which Warsaw has supported in the war against Russia’s invasion. Good relations soured in September over Ukrainian grain entering and affecting Poland’s market.
The Ipsos exit poll showed that three centrist opposition parties that campaigned on a promise to reverse the illiberal drift of the government had together secured 249 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, a clear majority.
With over two-thirds of voting districts reporting, partial official results released by the State Electoral Commission showed the opposition parties with a clear lead, and outstanding results are mostly from bigger cities where the opposition is strongest. There appeared to be no path for another term for Law and Justice.
A limited international observation mission led by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the Council of Europe said the “historic high turnout demonstrated the commitment of citizens to upholding democracy in Poland”, but it also pointed to the problem of bias by taxpayer-funded public television, which “demonstrated open hostility towards the opposition”.
Douglas Wake, the head of the mission, called it troubling that “the ruling party and its candidates gained a clear advantage from the misuse of state resources, undermining the separation between state and party”.
The governing party also mobilised other state resources to help itself, including by controlling the election administration and by an unfair division of votes in electoral districts, said Jacek Kucharczyk, president of the Institute of Public Affairs, a Warsaw think tank.
“The electoral system was really tilted toward the government,” he told the Associated Press. “You could say that the opposition had to fight this election with one hand tied behind its back and they still won.”
Poles still face weeks of political uncertainty. Law and Justice won more votes than any single party and said it would try to build a new government led by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
President Andrzej Duda, an ally of Law and Justice, must call the first session of the new parliament within 30 days of the election and designate a prime minister to try to build a government. In the meantime, the current government will remain in a caretaker role.
Mr Duda said he was happy about the large turnout and the peaceful nature of the election at a time of war across the border in Ukraine and “hybrid attacks from Belarus”.
An updated Ipsos poll on Monday afternoon showed Law and Justice with 36.1% of votes; the opposition Civic Coalition, led by former European Council president Donald Tusk, with 31%; the centrist Third Way coalition with 14%; the Left party with 8.6%; and the far-right Confederation with 6.8%.
The electoral commission said it expected to report the final result on Tuesday.
On Sunday evening, Mr Tusk declared that it was the end of Law and Justice rule and that a new era had begun for Poland.
