Voters are going to the polls in Portugal’s general election, with mainstream moderates trying to keep a populist party at bay.
The election, with 10.8 million registered voters, is set against a backdrop of corruption and economic hardship that have eroded faith in moderate mainstream parties and could push a significant number of voters into the arms of a radical right populist party.
A slew of recent corruption scandals has tarnished the two parties that have alternated in power for decades – the centre-left Socialist Party and the centre-right Social Democratic Party, which is running with two small allies in a coalition it calls Democratic Alliance. Those traditional parties are still expected to collect most of the votes.
Public frustration with “politics as usual” had already been percolating before the outcries over corruption.
Low wages and a high cost of living – worsened last year by surges in inflation and interest rates – coupled with a housing crisis and failings in public healthcare contributed to the disgruntlement.
That discontent has been further stirred up by Chega (Enough), a populist party that could potentially gain the most from the current public mood.
Chega is widely expected to be the third most-voted-for party in a political shift to the right that has already been seen elsewhere in Europe. Spain and France have witnessed similar trends in recent years.
Chega could even end up in the role of kingmaker if a bigger party needs the support of smaller rivals to form a government.
Voting began at 8am (0800 GMT) and most ballot results are expected within hours of polling stations closing at 8pm (2000 GMT).
Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, largely a figurehead but whose formal consent is needed for a party to take power, urged people to vote because uncertain times in world affairs threaten the country’s wellbeing. In the last election in 2022, turnout was 51%.
In a televised address to the nation on Saturday night, Mr Rebelo de Sousa cited the unpredictable outcome of elections later this year for the European Parliament and in the United States, as well as the war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East, as possibly bringing more economic difficulties.
He said: “It is at grievous times like this that voting becomes more important.”
The election is taking place because Socialist leader Antonio Costa resigned in November after eight years as prime minister amid a corruption investigation involving his chief of staff. Mr Costa has not been accused of any crime.
The Social Democrats, too, were embarrassed just before the campaign by a corruption scandal that brought the resignation of two prominent party officials.
Meanwhile, voters have expressed alarm at Portugal’s living standards as financial pressures mount.
An influx of foreign real estate investors and tourists seeking short-term rentals brought a spike in house prices, especially in big cities such as the capital, Lisbon, where many locals are being priced out of the market.
The economy feels stuck in a low gear.
The Portuguese, who have long been among Western Europe’s lowest earners, received an average monthly wage before tax last year of around 1,500 euros (£1,275) – barely enough to rent a one-bedroom flat in Lisbon. Close to three million Portuguese workers earn less than 1,000 euros (£850) a month.
Meanwhile, the number of people without an assigned family doctor rose to 1.7 million last year, the highest number ever and up from 1.4 million in 2022.
Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos, his party’s candidate for prime minister, is promising change with what he vaguely calls “a fresh boost”. But the 46-year-old has not broken with senior party members who served in previous governments.
Social Democrat leader Luis Montenegro, 51, who is likely to become prime minister if the Democratic Alliance wins, says he will draft non-party-affiliated figures – people he calls “doers” – into his government.
Chega party leader Andre Ventura has cannily plugged into the dissatisfaction and has built a following among young people on social media.
Just five years old, the party collected its first seat in Portugal’s 230-seat Parliament in 2019. That jumped to 12 seats in 2022, and polls suggest it could more than double that number this time.
Mr Ventura says he is prepared to drop some of his party’s most controversial proposals – such as chemical castration for some sex offenders and the introduction of life prison sentences – if that opens the door to his inclusion in a possible governing alliance with other right-of-centre parties.
His insistence on national sovereignty instead of closer European Union integration and his plan to grant police the right to strike are other issues that could thwart his ambitions to enter a government coalition.
Mr Ventura has had a colourful career. He has gone from practising lawyer and university professor specialising in tax law to boisterous TV soccer pundit, an author of low-brow books and a bombastic orator on the campaign trail.
