A Republican political consultant who worked under a number of US presidents has said that while Donald Trump should win the Republican nomination, if he makes his presidential campaign about his claims of a rigged 2020 election he will "be overcome with a more future-oriented message".
Mr Trump holds a commanding lead for the Republican nomination according to the polls, at 57 per cent over his nearest challenger in Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who was 16 per cent.
Mary Matalin served under president Ronald Reagan, was campaign director for George HW Bush, was an assistant to president George W Bush and counsellor to vice president Dick Cheney until 2003.
Ms Matalin told BreakingNews.ie: "More challengers virtually guarantee a Trump primary victory, as those candidates will split the not-Trump vote. National polls are possibly illustrative, but not particularly predictive at this point in the race. The national polls are especially worthless, since the candidates are concentrating their efforts in individual states.
"While Trump does enjoy a strong base, his support has diminished appreciably since his first run. Unlike previous multi-candidate contests, there are some real superstars in this field with impressive backgrounds and records, who are not afraid to challenge Trump, especially on Covid policies. Most important, whatever his base of support, if Trump makes the campaign about himself and 2020, he will be overcome with a more future oriented message."
When asked about the polarised nature of American politics, and hostility between Republicans and Democrats, Ms Matalin said relations between members and supporters of the two parties were much more civil in the past.
"Absolutely. We are in a dark space. Common good manners were the coin of the realm in our campaigns. In fact, I was fired in the 1992 campaign for being perceived as being 'rude' in some of my commentary!"
Some Republicans draw comparisons with Mr Trump and Mr Reagan, while others dismiss any links between the two former presidents.
Having worked under Mr Reagan, Ms Matalin said they were "completely different men".
However, she does think there are some similarities.
"Each shared the voters’ confidence that they were authentically committed to bettering the lives of everyday people. Each shared heinous treatment from the press.
"Each were disrupters to the political establishment. Each had unique and penetrating political skills. Both were problem solvers. They governed in dramatically different times and were completely different men. Reagan had a distinct, identifiable set of meta-principles, as well as a team of incredibly capable principals."
George HW Bush was known for his foreign policy achievements in navigating the final stages of the Cold War and the reunification of Germany.
However, the Republican Party has become much more isolationist in recent years, especially during Mr Trump's administration.
Indeed, many Republicans have called for less financial aid to Ukraine in their fight against the Russian invasion.
When asked if this reflected a negative change in the party, Ms Matalin said it was more down to problems with the US economy.
"While the GOP remains supportive of combatting totalitarian governments, the dramatic degradation of the economy and recovery from painfully destructive Covid policies is causing republican, as well as non republicans, to prioritise the myriad problems the middle class is experiencing."
On Saturday, September 2, the Saturday interview will see a husband and wife political duo take to the stage to discuss their opposing political viewpoints. We look forward to Mary Matalin & James Carville.
See: https://t.co/ZK3uMjg6r0#JFKSS #kennedysummerschool pic.twitter.com/PiroLrHzfF— Kennedy SummerSchool (@JFK_SS) June 30, 2023
Ms Matalin and her husband James Carville, who is a Democratic political consultant, will both be speakers at the Kennedy Summer School in New Ross, Co Wexford, in September.
For further details and tickets for the 2023 Kennedy Summer School events, see www.kennedysummerschool.ie
