The air crash which is presumed to have killed Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has raised questions about the future of the Russian mercenary outfit.
The Wagner Group’s presence extends from the ancient battlegrounds of Syria to the deserts of sub-Saharan Africa, projecting the Kremlin’s global influence, with mercenaries accused of using brutal force and profiting on mineral riches they seized.
But that was under Mr Prigozhin, who boasted that Wagner is “making Russia even greater on all continents and Africa even more free” in what is possibly his final video, broadcast earlier this week.
On Wednesday, a private jet carrying Mr Prigozhin and his top lieutenants crashed north-west of Moscow, two months after he led an armed rebellion that challenged the authority of Russian president Vladimir Putin.
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There is wide speculation that Mr Prigozhin, who is presumed dead, was targeted for this uprising, although the Kremlin has denied any involvement.
In African countries where Wagner provided security against groups like al-Qaida and the so-called Islamic State, officials and commentators predict Russia will likely maintain its presence, placing the forces under new leadership.
Others, however, say Mr Prigozhin built deep, personal connections that Moscow could find challenging to replace quickly.
Africa is vitally important to Russia – economically and politically.
This summer, Wagner helped secure a national referendum in the Central African Republic that cemented presidential power in a country that is a key partner for Mali’s army in battling armed rebels. Wagner also contacted the military junta in Niger, which is seeking its services following a coup.
Expanding ties and undercutting Western influence in Africa is a top priority as the Kremlin seeks new allies amid its war in Ukraine, where Wagner forces also helped win a key battle.
Africa’s 54 nations are the largest voting bloc at the UN, and Moscow has actively worked to rally their support for its invasion.
Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the UN, said on Friday that Wagner’s forces “are destabilising, and we’ve encouraged countries in Africa to condemn their presence as well as their actions”.
On Thursday, the Republican Front in the Central African Republic, allied with the ruling party, reiterated its support for Russia and Wagner, saying they were “determined to fight alongside the African people as they struggle for self-determination”.
Wagner forces have served as personal bodyguards for President Faustin Archange Touadera, protecting the capital of Bangui from rebel threats and helping secure a July 30 constitutional referendum that could extend his power indefinitely.
Central African activist and blogger Christian Aime Ndotah said the country’s cooperation with Russia would be unaffected by new leadership with Wagner, which has been “well-established” there for years.
But some in the Central African Republic denounce the mercenaries, and the UN peacekeeping mission there criticised them in 2021 for human rights abuses.
Jean Serge Bokassa, former public security minister, said: “A state’s security is its sovereignty. You can’t entrust the security of a state to a group of mercenaries.”
Nathalia Dukhan, senior investigator at The Sentry, predicted the Kremlin will try to bring Africa closer into its orbit.
“Wagner has been a successful tool for Russia to expand its influence efficiently and brutally,” she said. “In the midst of all the turmoil between Putin and Prigozhin, the Wagner operation in Central Africa only deepened, with increased direct involvement by the Russian government.”
High-ranking Wagner operatives have built relationships in Mali and the Central African Republic and understand the terrain, said Lou Osborn of All Eyes on Wagner, a project focusing on the group.
“They have a good reputation, which they can sell to another Russian contender. It wouldn’t be surprising if a new organisation took them over,” Osborn said, noting that Russian military contractors in Ukraine, such as Redut and Convoy, have recently expressed a desire to do business in Africa.
Redut was created by the Russian defence ministry, which has sought to put Wagner under its control.
Following the June mutiny, Mr Putin said the mercenaries could sign contracts with the ministry and keep serving under one of the group’s top commanders, Andrei Troshev. It was not clear how many troops accepted, but media reports put the number at a few thousand.
The Kremlin still faces challenges in keeping the strong presence in Africa that Mr Prigozhin helped establish.
Former Putin speechwriter Abbas Gallyamov argued Mr Prigozhin may have been allowed to continue his activities because Russian authorities had to find people who would take over his work.
“Time was needed to create the new channels, new mechanisms of control over those projects,” he said.
“And it’s not a fact that they have been successful in that. It’s possible that they have failed and the Kremlin may lose some of those projects.”
The UK’s Ministry of Defence said Mr Prigozhin’s demise “would almost certainly have a deeply destabilising effect on the Wagner Group”.
On Friday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to comment on Wagner’s future.
