The failed assassination attempt against Iraq’s prime minister at his residence on Sunday has ratcheted up tensions following last month’s parliamentary elections where the Iran-backed militias were the biggest losers.
Helicopters circled in the Baghdad skies throughout the day, while troops and patrols were deployed around Baghdad and near the capital’s fortified Green Zone, where the overnight attack occurred.
Supporters of the Iran-backed militias held their ground in a protest camp outside the Green Zone to demand a vote recount. Leaders of the Iran-backed factions converged for the second day on a funeral tent to mourn a protester killed on Friday in clashes with security. Many of the faction leaders blame the prime minister for the violence.
Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi suffered a light cut and appeared in a televised speech soon after the attack by armed drones on his residence. He appeared calm and composed, seated behind a desk in a white shirt with what appeared to be a bandage around his left wrist.
Seven of his security guards were wounded in the attack by at least two armed drones, according to two Iraqi officials.
Mr al-Khadimi called for calm dialogue.
“Cowardly rocket and drone attacks don’t build homelands and don’t build a future,” he said in the televised speech.
Condemnation of the attack poured in from world leaders, with several calling Mr al-Khadimi with words of support. They included Prime Minister Boris Johnson, French president Emmanuel Macron and Jordan’s King Abdullah II.
Saudi Arabia called the attack an apparent act of “terrorism”. Egypt’s president Abdel Fattah el-Sissi on Facebook urged all sides in Iraq to “join forces to preserve the country’s stability”.
“The perpetrators of this terrorist attack on the Iraqi state must be held accountable,” US president Joe Biden said in a statement.
“I condemn in the strongest terms those using violence to undermine Iraq’s democratic process.”
Later on Sunday, Mr al-Khadimi met with Iraqi president Barham Salih and headed security and cabinet meetings.
A security video showed the damage to his residence: a van parked outside the site badly mangled, a shallow crater near the stairs, cracks in the ceiling and walls of a balcony and broken parts of the building’s roof. Two unexploded rockets were filmed at the scene.
There was no claim of responsibility, but suspicion immediately fell on Iran-backed militias. They had been blamed for previous attacks on the Green Zone, which also houses foreign embassies.
The militia leaders condemned the attack, but most sought to downplay it.
Dark times ahead for Iraq: Prime Minister Mustafa Kadhami has been attacked by Iran-aligned Shiite militias. For context, I wrote this for @BrookingsFP on why these are desperate times for Iran & its militias, & why this escalation has been in the making. https://t.co/BSE0HXVUa9
— Ranj Alaaldin (@RanjAlaaldin) November 7, 2021
It was a dramatic escalation in the already tense situation following the October 10 vote and the surprising results in which Iran-backed militias lost about two-thirds of their seats.
Despite a low turnout, the results confirmed a rising wave of discontent against the militias who had been praised years before as heroes for fighting so-called Islamic State militants.
But the militias have lost popularity since 2018, when they made big election gains. Many hold them responsible for suppressing the 2019 youth-led anti-government protests, and for undermining state authority.
The attack “is to cut off the road that could lead to a second al-Kadhimi term by those who lost in the recent elections”, Bassam al-Qizwini, a Baghdad political analyst, said.
“They started escalating first in the street, then clashed with Iraqi security forces, and now this.”
On Friday, protests by supporters of the pro-Iran Shiite militias became fatal when the demonstrators tried to enter the Green Zone where they had been camped out, demanding a recount.
Security forces used tear gas and live ammunition. There was an exchange of fire in which one protester affiliated with the militias was killed. Dozens of security forces were injured. Mr al-Khadimi ordered an investigation.
“The blood of martyrs is to hold you accountable,” said Qais al-Khazali, leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia, addressing Mr al-Kadhimi in recorded comments to supporters. He blamed the prime minister for election fraud.
In the strongest criticism of the prime minister, Abu Ali al-Askari, a senior leader with one of the hard line pro-Iran militias, Kataib Hezbollah, questioned whether the assassination attempt was really Mr al-Kadhimi’s effort to “play the role of the victim”.
“According to our confirmed information, no-one in Iraq has the desire to lose a drone on the residence” of Mr al-Kadhimi, Mr al-Askari wrote in a Twitter post.
“If anyone wants to harm this Facebook creature there are many ways that are less costly and more effective to realise that.”
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh condemned the assassination attempt on Mr al-Khadimi and indirectly blamed the US.
Mr al-Kadhimi, 54, was Iraq’s former intelligence chief before becoming prime minister in May last year. He is considered by the militias to be close to the US, and has tried to balance between Iraq’s alliances with both America and Iran.
Meanwhile, Iraq’s election commission has yet to announce the final results. The parliament could then convene, elect a president and form a government.
The US, the UN Security Council and others have praised the election, which was mostly violence-free and without major technical glitches.
But the unsubstantiated fraud claims have cast a shadow over the vote. The standoff with the militia supporters has increased tensions among rival Shiite factions that could spill into violence and threaten Iraq’s newfound relative stability.
Influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who won the largest number of parliament seats in the October elections, denounced the “terrorist attack”, which he said sought to return Iraq to the lawlessness and chaos of the past.
While Mr al-Sadr maintains good relations with Iran, he publicly opposes external interference in Iraq’s affairs.
