Spiking tensions in eastern Ukraine have aggravated Western fears of a Russian invasion and a new war on the edge of Europe, with a humanitarian convoy hit by shelling and pro-Russian rebels ordering the evacuation of civilians from the conflict zone.
The Kremlin declared massive nuclear drills to flex its military muscle, and President Vladimir Putin pledged to protect Russia’s national interests against what it sees as encroaching Western threats.
US and European leaders, meanwhile, grasped for ways to keep the peace and Europe’s post-Cold War security order.
While Mr Putin held out the possibility of diplomacy, a cascade of developments this week have further exacerbated East-West tensions and fuelled war worries.
US and European officials, focused on an estimated 150,000 Russian troops posted around Ukraine’s borders, warn the long-simmering separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine could provide the spark for a broader attack.
US vice president Kamala Harris said the US still hopes Russia will de-escalate but is ready to hit it with tough sanctions in case of an attack.
US leaders this week issued their most dire warnings yet that Moscow could order an invasion of Ukraine any day.
“We remain, of course, open to and desirous of diplomacy … but we are also committed, if Russia takes aggressive action, to ensure there will be severe consequence,” Ms Harris said at the annual Munich Security Conference.
While Russia snubbed this year’s conference, lines of communication remain open: The US and Russian defence chiefs spoke on Friday, and US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin called for de-escalation, the return of Russian forces surrounding Ukraine to their home bases, and a diplomatic resolution, according to the Pentagon.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov agreed to meet next week.
Immediate worries focused on eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces have been fighting pro-Russia rebels since 2014 in a conflict that has killed some 14,000 people.
A strong explosion was reported on Friday in the centre of the city of Donetsk, according to the rebel news agency DAN and a reporter for the Associated Press there. There were no immediate details on casualties or where it took place.
Separatists in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions that form Ukraine’s industrial heartland called the Donbas announced they are evacuating civilians to Russia starting on Friday afternoon.
The announcement appeared to be part of Moscow’s efforts to counter Western warnings of a Russian invasion, and paint Ukraine as the aggressor instead.
Denis Pushilin, head of the Donetsk rebel government, said women, children and the elderly will be evacuated first, and that Russia has prepared facilities for them.
Mr Pushilin alleged in a video statement that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was going to order an imminent offensive in the area.
Shortly after his statement, authorities began moving children from an orphanage in Donetsk, and other residents also prepared to board buses for Russia later in the evening. Long lines formed at petrol stations as more people prepared to leave on their own.
Mr Putin ordered his emergencies minister to fly to the Rostov region bordering Ukraine to help organise the exodus and ordered the government to offer a payment of 10,000 rubles (about £95) to each evacuee, equivalent to about half of an average monthly salary in the war-ravaged Donbas.
Ukraine denied planning any offensive, with Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba saying that “Ukraine does not conduct or plan any such actions in the Donbas”.
“We are fully committed to diplomatic conflict resolution only,” he tweeted.
Around the volatile line of contact, a UNHCR convoy came under rebel shelling in the Luhansk region, Ukraine’s military chief said. No casualties were reported. Rebels denied involvement and accused Ukraine of staging a provocation.
Separatist authorities reported more shelling by Ukrainian forces along the line. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the situation is “potentially very dangerous”.
A surge of shelling Thursday tore through the walls of a nursery school, injuring two, and basic communications were disrupted. Both sides accused each other of opening fire.
Ukrainian officials charged that the rebels intensified the shelling in the hopes of provoking a retaliatory attack by government forces.
Ukrainian military chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi insisted that “our actions are purely defensive”.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the threat to global security is “more complex and probably higher” than during the Cold War.
He told the Munich conference that a small mistake or miscommunication between major powers could have catastrophic consequences.
