Voting started in the Maldives presidential election on Saturday, a virtual referendum over which regional power – India or China – will have the biggest influence in the Indian Ocean archipelago state.
Eight runners are vying for the post, with current President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih — perceived as pro-India — facing off with his main rival Mohamed Muiz.
Mr Solih is seeking re-election for a second term amid allegations by Mr Muiz that he has allowed India an unchecked presence in the country.
Mr Muiz promised that if he won the presidency he would remove Indian troops stationed in the Maldives and balance the country’s trade relations, which he said is heavily in India’s favour.
The People’s National Congress, Mr Muiz’s party, is viewed as heavily pro-China.
Its leader, Abdullah Yameen, when he was president from 2013-2018, made the Maldives a part of China’s One Belt One Road initiative, which envisages building ports, railways and roads to expand trade — and China’s influence — in a swathe across Asia, Africa and Europe.
Mohamed Shareef, a senior official for Mr Muiz’s party, told The Associated Press that the removal of Indian military personnel was a “non-negotiable” position for the party.
He said the number of Indian troops and their activities are hidden from Maldivians, and that they have near-exclusive use of certain parts and airports in the country.
Both India and China vie for influence in the tiny archipelago state made up of some 1,200 coral islands in the Indian Ocean, located by the main shipping route between east and west.
Mr Solih was considered the front-runner in the field of eight candidates since his strongest rival, Mr Yameen, was blocked from running by the Supreme Court because he is in prison for corruption and money laundering convictions.
Mr Muiz hoped to take advantage of a split in Mr Solih’s Maldivian Democratic Party that led Mohamed Nasheed, a charismatic former president, to break away and field his own candidate.
Mr Nasheed is currently backing Ilyas Labeeb who, though not highly critical of India, has accused Mr Solih of not being transparent in his dealings with India, according to Azim Zahir, a political science and international relations lecturer at the University of Western Australia.
The India Out campaign – spearheaded by Mr Muiz’s party – has been all over social media in the run-up to the election and almost all candidates except Mr Solih adopted the “India vs. the rest” rhetoric, said Mr Zahir.
Mr Solih is widely credited for having brought stability to the country and adeptly handling the Covid-19 health crisis, which can work in his advantage, added Mr Zahir.
More than 282,000 people are eligible to vote in Saturday’s election.
A candidate would need to get 50% plus one vote to win outright. Otherwise, the top two finishers would meet in a run-off election later this month.
