Diplomatic efforts to head off what western countries have warned could be an imminent Russian attack on Ukraine entered a new round on Monday, as Russia’s top diplomat advised President Vladimir Putin to continue talks and Germany’s chancellor met the Ukrainian president.
In an appearance orchestrated for TV cameras, Russia’s foreign minister argued that possibilities for talks have not been exhausted. That seemed designed to send a message that Mr Putin himself believes hopes for a diplomatic solution have not yet faded.
Here’s a look at what is happening where and why:
– What’s the message from Russia?
The Kremlin signalled that it is ready to keep talking with the West about security grievances that led to the current crisis, offering hope that Russia might not invade Ukraine within days.
Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said at a meeting with Mr Putin that Moscow should hold more talks with the US and its allies despite their refusal to consider the main Russian demands.
Mr Lavrov said the talks “can’t go on indefinitely, but I would suggest to continue and expand them at this stage”. He noted that Washington has offered to discuss limits for missile deployments in Europe, restrictions on military drills and other confidence-building measures.
Asked by Mr Putin if it made sense to continue diplomatic efforts, Mr Lavrov responded that possibilities for talks “are far from being exhausted” and proposed to continue the negotiations. He said his ministry would not allow the U.S. and its allies to stonewall Russia’s main requests.
What’s going on in Ukraine?
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz took a message of solidarity to Kyiv, telling President Volodymyr Zelensky that Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are not negotiable.
Mr Scholz, whose visit came ahead of a meeting with Mr Putin in Moscow on Tuesday, demanded “clear steps to de-escalate the current tensions” from Russia. He thanked the Ukrainian government for its “sober and restrained reaction to a very serious and threatening situation”.
Mr Scholz noted that Nato and the US have made proposals to Moscow that Germany supports, “and we now expect a reaction, an answer to them from Russia”. He urged Moscow to accept offers of dialogue.
The chancellor said in case of military escalation, “we are ready for very far-reaching and effective sanctions in consultation with our allies” and “we know what to do” if Russia violates Ukraine’s territorial integrity again.
There was no shift in Germany’s refusal to join some allies in supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons.
Mr Zelensky said the tensions around his country present “an unprecedented challenge for Europe and the world”.
“It is in Ukraine that the future of the European security architecture — of which our state is a part — is being decided today.”
UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres held talks on Monday with the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine and again underlined “there is no alternative to diplomacy” to resolve the dispute.
UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said Mr Guterres held a previously scheduled virtual meeting with Mr Lavrov that lasted over 20 minutes and included several other issues. The secretary-general then called Ukraine’s foreign minister Dymtro Kuleba, he said.
“What the secretary-general expressed to both foreign ministers was his serious concern over the heightened tensions around Ukraine,” Mr Dujarric said. “He welcomed the ongoing diplomatic discussions to defuse those tensions and underlined yet again the fact that there is no alternative to diplomacy.”
When could Russia make its move?
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Europe is “on the edge of a precipice”, citing an American warning that Russia could invade Ukraine in the next 48 hours.
“But there is still time for President Putin to step back,” Mr Johnson added, and urged a united response from Nato.
The head of non-Nato-member Sweden’s military forces said Russia has “all the needed capacity along the Ukrainian border for a military operation”.
“We do not exclude anything,” said General Micael Byden. “Whether it happens today, on Wednesday or a week, we do not know.”
What if talks don’t succeed?
Poland is making preparations to accept Ukrainian refugees in the event of another Russian attack on its neighbour, but the Polish government hopes that worst-case scenario can be averted.
Similar preparations are being made across the region, particularly in nations that border Ukraine.
Poland, which has welcomed large numbers of Ukrainian economic migrants in recent years, particularly after Russia’s incursions in 2014, has been making plans for weeks to accept refugees if it comes to that, said Marcin Przydacz, a deputy foreign minister.
How is Ukraine’s president faring?
Mr Zelensky won a landslide victory in 2019. As a political novice making an unlikely bid for the job, he had vowed to reach out to Russia-backed rebels in the east who were fighting Ukrainian forces and make strides toward resolving the conflict.
But he is watching his once-enormous support dissolve as Ukraine faces fears of a Russian invasion that could not only take the rebel regions but possibly the rest of the country.
To make matters worse, the incumbent he defeated in 2019 has boldly returned to the country to face charges of treason and stir up opposition to him. Analysts suggest that Moscow is seeking to bolster support among pro-Russia politicians in Ukraine and that the build-up of Russian forces near Ukraine’s border is aimed partly at destabilising the country’s politics.
