Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has publicly acknowledged for the first time that western partners are ramping up pressure to negotiate with Russia, hinting that such talks may not be favourable to Kyiv.
It came as he unveiled to politicians the main points of his victory plan – his blueprint to pave the way for a just peace for Ukraine.
Mr Zelensky told Ukraine’s parliament that in “non-public communication with Ukraine”, partners are increasingly mentioning “negotiations” and much less frequently using the word “justice”.
Mr Zelensky said that Ukraine is not prepared for a “frozen conflict” or any “trade-offs involving territory or sovereignty”, which garnered a long applause.
The victory plan, which has been shrouded in secrecy as Mr Zelensky presented it to key allies in recent weeks, including US President Joe Biden, is Ukraine’s way to strengthen its hand in any future negotiation scenario with Russia as circumstances on the battlefield appear bleak.
The president also dialled up the stakes in Ukraine, repeating his recent claims that North Korea is now sending military personnel to help Russia’s war effort, as well as delivering ammunition, and that Iran and China are also aiding Moscow.
His plan to win his country’s fight against Russia’s invasion could bring peace next year, Mr Zelensky said, but it contains a step that some crucial western allies have so far refused to countenance: inviting Ukraine to join Nato before the war ends.
“If we start moving according to this victory plan now, it may be possible to end the war no later than next year,” Mr Zelensky said.
Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte declined to welcome the “victory plan”, saying only that he and the allies “take note” of it. He did not discuss when Ukraine might join the world’s biggest military alliance, beyond insisting that it would become a member.
“The plan has many aspects and many political and military issues we really need to hammer out with the Ukrainians to understand what is behind it, to see what we can do, what we cannot do,” Mr Rutte said in his muted response at Nato headquarters in Brussels.
“We are in close contact with allies, with Ukraine, to see how we can take next steps.”
He declined to provide details about what more Nato wants to know, telling reporters only: “I cannot give you all the insights about that.”
For now, Mr Rutte said, the focus must be on helping Ukraine to win back more territory and strengthen its hand for any future peace negotiations.
The Ukrainian parliament will prioritise the bills needed to implement the plan, said speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk after Mr Zelensky’s presentation.
According to Mr Stefanchuk, while the issue of Nato membership is political, it also requires the adoption of a series of laws to match Ukraine to Nato standards.
The first point in Mr Zelensky’s five-point plan is an invitation to join Nato.
“We understand that Nato membership is a matter of the future, not the present,” he clarified.
Ukrainian officials believe an invitation would alter Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “geopolitical calculations”.
As he delivered his speech, the mood in Ukraine was grim.
Ukraine’s troops are having trouble holding back Russia’s military might, especially in the eastern Donetsk region where they are gradually being pushed back.
Though Russia’s gains have been incremental, its steady forward movement is slowly adding up and Ukraine keenly feels the need for more large-scale western help.
But there are signs that western support may be diminished by a focus on the Middle East wars and domestic political concerns. The US elections next month could bring a major shift in Ukraine’s fortunes, as Washington has been the biggest provider of military aid.
Mr Zelensky said granting Ukraine an invitation would be a “testament of (allies’) determination” to support Ukraine.
“An invitation is a strong decision that requires nothing but determination,” he said.
Nato’s collective security guarantee – Article 5 of its founding treaty – is the pillar on which its credibility is based. It is a political commitment by all member countries to come to the aid of any member whose sovereignty or territory might be under attack.
At their summit in Washington in July, Nato’s 32 members declared Ukraine to be on an “irreversible” path to membership. Any decision on offering to start membership talks is probably not likely before the next summit in the Netherlands in June.
Despite his attempts to win approval for the plan from western partners, none have yet publicly voiced their support.
Politicians had a mixed reaction to the plan and whether it could be implemented.
“First of all, it’s not a plan. Plan means something with concrete steps. It’s kind of a wish list from Ukraine for our partners, how they can and should support us. And it doesn’t look realistic. We were waiting for some real serious conversation about the situation and the strategy, and this is not that,” said Oleksii Honcharenko, a politician from an opposition party.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 15 October 2024.
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/s4Afy1P5av #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/Zgu537dsSh— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) October 15, 2024
He added that delivering a plan purported to be about victory as Russia advances along the eastern front is “contradictory”.
“It’s realistic and rather pragmatic plan. It can be implemented if we have enough aid and support from our allies and partners,” said Oleksandr Merezhko, an MP with Mr Zelensky’s party. “One of the key issues is an invitation from Nato to join the alliance. In itself it would be a huge strategic defeat for Putin.”
He added: “I also liked that the president talked about those things which can be lucrative for the West, explaining why Ukraine might be of great value for Europe and the West from geopolitical and economic points of view. And the question is on whose side will be these resources: on the side of the democratic states or on the side of the authoritarian regimes.”
Even as Mr Zelensky was presenting his plan, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov shrugged it off as “ephemeral”, saying mockingly that “most likely, it’s the US plan to fight us until the last Ukrainian, which Zelensky camouflaged and called a ‘peace plan’.”
Mr Zelensky’s “victory plan” contains confidential sections which he did not mention in parliament.
Other aspects of the plan include continued striking of targets on Russian soil, including the incursion into Russia’s Kursk border region that began in August, and permission to use long-range missiles to target military infrastructure deep inside Russian territory.
Ukraine, he said, also needs more air defence systems and assistance from partners to shoot down Russian missiles. It also requested access to a broader range of intelligence from allies.
Mr Zelensky noted that Ukraine is rich in natural resources, including critically important metals “worth trillions of US dollars”, such as uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite and others.
Those Ukrainian assets, as well as the country’s agricultural production, are among Russia’s key targets in the war, he said, but could be shared in postwar-times with partners.
